GBP/CAD steady as markets digest mixed Canada employment report
- GBP/CAD trades near one-month highs as markets digest mixed Canadian jobs data.
- Rising unemployment and softer wage growth limit support for the Loonie.
- Focus shifts to next week’s UK employment and GDP data.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades little changed against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with GBP/CAD struggling to find direction as traders show a muted reaction to Canada’s latest employment report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.8636, hovering near one-month highs.
Data released by Statistics Canada showed that Net Change in Employment rose by 8.2K in December, beating market expectations for a 5K decline, but easing sharply from November’s 53.6K gain. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 6.8% from 6.5%, coming in above forecasts of 6.6%.
Wage growth also showed signs of cooling. Average Hourly Wages increased 3.7% YoY in December, down from 4.0%.
From a monetary policy perspective, the mixed jobs report is unlikely to materially alter near-term expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC). Markets widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates on hold through much of 2026.
Although some analysts had pointed to the possibility of a rate hike toward year-end, the latest labour-market data, marked by rising unemployment and cooling wage growth, complicates that outlook and reinforces the case for a prolonged wait-and-see stance.
At its December meeting, the BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, noting that the current setting is “about the right level.” Traders now look ahead to Canada’s inflation data due later this month, which could help shape near-term expectations for monetary policy.
In the United Kingdom, attention is turning to next week’s key economic releases, including labour-market data due on Tuesday and the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for November scheduled for Thursday.
From a broader perspective, the interest-rate differential between the BoC and the Bank of England (BoE) continues to favour the Pound, keeping GBP/CAD tilted to the upside.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is also sensitive to the evolving oil backdrop. Washington’s expanding oversight of Venezuelan oil flows has raised expectations of higher global supply, reinforcing oversupply risks that could cap Oil prices and weigh on the Loonie, given Canada’s status as a major energy exporter.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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