MUFG’s Lloyd Chan warns that the Indonesian Rupiah remains exposed as US yield increases erode Indonesia’s rate support.

DBS Group Research strategist Sherilyn Chew contrasts India’s domestic backdrop with Indonesia, arguing India is deeper into a tightening phase. Markets are pricing a possible Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hike in October, with liquidity surplus falling after RBI draining measures.

USD/IDR recovers its recent losses from the previous trading day, trading around 17,980 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Asian equities mostly trade in negative territory on Monday, pressured by rising oil prices and higher US Treasury yields. Traders doubt that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement soon. 

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 6.8% to 15.4% in August

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM): -0.5% (August) vs previous 2.3%

Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and weakens below the $4,200 mark, hitting its lowest level since August 5 during the Asian session amid a bearish fundamental backdrop.

China’s Commerce Ministry said on Monday that the United States (US) and Chinese officials confirmed that the bilateral trade truce has been extended by two months, moving the expiration date from November 10 January 10, 2027. 

Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) increased to 3.7% in August from previous 3.6%

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he believes the war with Iran will be won “very soon,” adding that additional military strikes before the midterm elections are possible, Fox News reported. 

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Monday, per the BoJ Minutes of the July meeting.   

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH as consolidating after a move to 6.7200, with momentum slowing in the very near term.

US Treasury yields turned mixed on Friday as the long-end of the curve, the 20s and 30s, posted gains while the short-end and the belly of the yield curve retreated to multi-year high levels. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds firm at 5.20% after peaking at a 19-year high of 5.228%.

ING’s Asia-Pacific research notes that South Korea’s upcoming data should show stronger industrial production and a widening trade surplus, even as export and import growth moderates. Technology and semiconductor exports are expected to underpin the surplus.

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $225.9K vs previous $230.3K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions: £-82.6K vs previous £-58.7K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions down to $-133.2K from previous $-100.5K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions fell from previous ¥120.4K to ¥72K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €-52.3K vs previous €-27K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 141.1K from previous 135.9K

Societe Generale describes a limited impact from President Xi’s US visit, with no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism agreed as the trade truce was only extended to January.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are not in conflict. She said that “high inflation complicates economic planning,” and that she doesn’t see current policy as restraining the economy.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD held steady around 1.2800 after Wednesday’s surge, with the Singapore Dollar (SGD) supported by expectations of further MAS tightening.

The European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujcic said that the ECB started a tightening cycle and sees a “risk of higher for longer energy prices” and added that diesel prices will stay for long, feeding into inflation.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Asian FX traded broadly softer as higher Oil prices and rising US Treasury yields hurt risk sentiment, with Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) underperforming and Philippine Peso (PHP), Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) also weaker.

The Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is crossing the wires on Friday.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat versus the US Dollar (USD) and lagging most G10 peers. They highlight that wider US–Canada yield spreads have weighed on the CAD, but see the move as stretched.

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise rates by 25bp, citing a still-hot economy, tight labour market conditions and upside surprises in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation.

Societe Generale notes Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, including the Hungarian Forint (HUF), are set to weaken about 3% against the Euro (EUR) this week as EUR/USD falls below 1.14.