NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi recovers to near 0.5860 as China data lifts outlook

• NZD/USD recovers toward 0.5860 after four consecutive days of losses, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
• Markets focus on RBNZ rate decision, 25-basis-point hike later this year priced in.
• Improving risk sentiment and a softer US Dollar aid the Kiwi despite Middle East war continuing.

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5860 level, recovering after four days of straight losses. The rebound was supported by the release of solid economic data from China, New Zealand’s trading partner. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Retail Sales increased by 2.8% YoY in February, rising above market expectations of 2.5% and abysmally surpassing the previous 0.9%.

Risk appetite improved after a slight easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports indicate that the United States may announce the formation of an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This move could help secure global energy supplies and alleviate concerns about potential disruptions.

Meanwhile, markets are closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as it prepares to announce its interest rate decision on April 8. Investors are anticipating a potential tightening of monetary policy later this year, with some forecasts already suggesting a 25-basis-point rate hike around September, along with a significant chance of an additional increase by year-end.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5860. The near-term bias is mildly bullish after the pair rebounded from the recent lows below 0.5800 and reclaimed the 0.5839 support area. Price now hovers just above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5848 while still capped beneath the declining 100-period SMA near 0.5924, signaling only a modest recovery within a broader corrective phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lifted back to 50, but lost momentum, hinting at fading upward pressure in the very near term.

Immediate resistance appears at 0.5869, where failure would keep the pair vulnerable to renewed selling toward support at 0.5839, followed by 0.5794. A sustained break above 0.5869 would expose the 100-period SMA region around 0.5920 as the next upside level, where the broader bearish structure could reassert itself. As long as NZD/USD holds above 0.5839, dips are more likely to attract buyers, while a clear drop through 0.5794 would negate the nascent bullish bias and reopen the downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)