Reuters poll: Economists see ECB on hold in April, June hike odds rise
- A large majority of economists expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at the April meeting.
- Expectations for a rate hike in June are increasing compared to the previous survey.
- The consensus is shifting more clearly toward at least one rate hike this year.
The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.
According to the poll, 84 out of 85 economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2% at the April meeting, pointing to an almost unanimous consensus for a short-term hold.
However, expectations evolve for the following meetings, as 44 of the 85 economists now anticipate a rate hike to 2.25% as early as June. This marks a shift compared to late March, when 38 of 60 economists surveyed expected no change through 2026.
Beyond the immediate horizon, tightening expectations are strengthening significantly. The survey shows that 50 out of 85 economists expect at least one rate hike this year, compared to just 21 out of 60 in the previous poll. This change reflects a repositioning of the consensus toward a potentially more restrictive monetary policy stance over the medium term.
These results reflect ongoing uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the Eurozone and suggest that the ECB may maintain a cautious stance in the near term, while keeping the door open to further policy adjustments should inflationary pressures persist.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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