GBP/USD edges lower to 1.3220 as market leans bearish post-budget
- GBP/USD pulls back as thin liquidity, Autumn Budget sparks profit-taking near recent highs.
- Fed cut odds rise to 87% after dovish New York Fed John Williams.
- Evening-star pattern and weakening RSI signal deeper pullback toward key support levels.
GBP/USD dips during the North American session, despite heading to end the week with gains of over almost 1%, after the financial markets digest the Autumn Budget. The pair trades at 1.3221 after retreating from a daily high of 1.3245.
Sterling pares weekly gains as dovish Fed bets rise but BoE cut expectations weigh on Cable
The US economic docket was shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday. Nevertheless, softer inflation prints, with the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) for September diving from 2.8% to 2.6% and a dip on Initial Jobless Claims from 222K in the week ending November 14 to 216K for the last week finishing November 21, strengthened the case for a pause on the Fed’s easing cycle.
Nevertheless, dovish comments by the New York Fed John Williams increased the chances of a 25-basis points rate cut by the US central bank at the December meeting. As of writing, odds stand at 87%,
In the UK, Reachel Reeves pushed back against critics of the government’s spending budget, which would fund extra welfare spending by hiking taxes. They plan to raise taxes by £26 billion.
Following the release of the budget, Cable rose past 1.3200, but since peaking at 1.3268, the pair retreated with sellers expecting a break below 1.3200. It is worth noting that money markets priced in a 25-bps rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), hence further downside on the GBP/USD is expected.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD seems to have peaked, as it is forming an ‘evening star’ candle chart pattern, after buyers failed to reclaim key resistance at the 50-day SMA at 1.3279. A daily close below 1.3200 could pave the way for further downside, with traders eyeing the 20-day SMA at 1.3139 seen as key support ahead of 1.3100 and of 1.3010, November’s bottom.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems poised to turn bearish, aiming lower towards its neutral line, indicating that sellers are gathering momentum.
Pound Sterling Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.55% | 1.39% | -0.18% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | -0.33% | 1.63% | 0.05% | 0.37% | 0.39% | 0.57% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | 0.33% | 1.98% | 0.38% | 0.69% | 0.73% | 0.91% | |
| JPY | -1.39% | -1.63% | -1.98% | -1.60% | -1.26% | -1.24% | -1.09% | |
| CAD | 0.18% | -0.05% | -0.38% | 1.60% | 0.27% | 0.35% | 0.52% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.37% | -0.69% | 1.26% | -0.27% | 0.03% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | -0.39% | -0.73% | 1.24% | -0.35% | -0.03% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.57% | -0.91% | 1.09% | -0.52% | -0.22% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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