Japanese Yen turns upside down against US Dollar as dovish Fed bets recede
- The Japanese Yen surrenders its early losses and turns negative against the US Dollar as the latter recovers strongly.
- The US Dollar attracts significant bids on upbeat US data and the US-Iran war.
- Traders doubt that the Fed will cut interest rates in the July policy meeting.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gives back its early gains and turns negative against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair rises to near 157.35 as the US Dollar resumes its upside journey after a corrective move.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.4% higher to near 99.15.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.78% | 0.52% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | -0.01% | -0.33% | -0.27% | 0.37% | 0.11% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.40% | 0.01% | -0.34% | -0.26% | 0.39% | 0.11% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.33% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.71% | 0.42% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.27% | 0.26% | -0.05% | 0.67% | 0.38% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.78% | -0.37% | -0.39% | -0.71% | -0.67% | -0.26% | -0.52% | |
| NZD | -0.52% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.42% | -0.38% | 0.26% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | 0.14% | 0.13% | -0.18% | -0.11% | 0.52% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar gains as upbeat United States (US) ADP Employment and surprisingly strong ISM Services PMI data for February have forced traders to pare bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the July policy meeting.
The ADP reported that the US private sector created 63K fresh jobs in February, significantly higher than 50K estimates and the prior reading of 11K. Meanwhile, the ISM report showed that the Services PMI arrived higher at 56.1, while it was expected to come in lower at 53.5 from 53.8 in January.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed reducing interest rates in the July meeting have increased to 50.2% from 37.9% seen on Tuesday.
In addition to diminishing dovish Fed bets, broadly firm demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened conflicts in the Middle East is also supporting the US Dollar. The war between the US, Iran, and Israel seems unlikely to end in the near term as Tehran denies reports stating that it is willing to talk on truce.
Though the US Dollar outperforms the Japanese Yen (JPY), the latter is up against its other peers as its safe-haven demand has also improved amid the US-Iran war.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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