AUD/USD advances on US employment contraction, RBA rate hike outlook
- AUD/USD advances after a sharp contraction in US employment in February.
- Markets reassess the monetary policy outlook as labor market momentum deteriorates.
- Expectations of further rate hikes in Australia support the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD trades around 0.7020 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.11% on the day, as investors digest a much weaker-than-expected US employment report.
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that employment declined by 92K jobs in February, sharply missing expectations for an increase of 59K. The previous month’s figure was also revised slightly lower to 126K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate edged down to 62%.
Despite the deterioration in job creation, wage pressures remain relatively firm. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, a level that could complicate the monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Consumer data also points to signs of economic cooling. US Retail Sales declined by 0.2% MoM in January, confirming a slowdown in domestic demand.
In this environment, the US Dollar (USD) is still receiving some support from safe-haven flows driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following comments by US President Donald Trump regarding Iran. “There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender”, said Trump.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains supported by expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets estimate a roughly 33% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the March 17 meeting, while a rate increase is now fully priced in for May, according to Reuters. Rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also reinforcing expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Australian central bank.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.39% | -0.06% | 0.10% | -0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.31% | -0.02% | -0.44% | -0.11% | 0.06% | -0.42% | |
| GBP | 0.27% | 0.31% | 0.30% | -0.13% | 0.19% | 0.35% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.30% | -0.40% | -0.09% | 0.06% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.39% | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.40% | 0.32% | 0.47% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.11% | -0.19% | 0.09% | -0.32% | 0.15% | -0.31% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.35% | -0.06% | -0.47% | -0.15% | -0.45% | |
| CHF | 0.36% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.40% | -0.02% | 0.31% | 0.45% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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