Crude Oil explodes higher as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens
- WTI Spot prices surge past $87.00 as tanker attacks spread and Gulf shipping grinds to a halt.
- The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after US-Israeli strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, with nine vessels attacked in the past week and tanker traffic near zero.
- China ordered refiners to suspend fuel export contracts, Qatar halted LNG production, and Iraq began shutting in output at Rumaila as the conflict entered its sixth day with no signs of resolution.
WTI crude oil surged about 11% on Thursday, breaching above $87.00, its highest level since October 2023, in a session dominated by a single massive bullish candle that dwarfed every session of the past three months. Price has now rallied more than 30% from the consolidation zone near $65.00 that held through most of February, blowing through every overhead reference level in a near-vertical ascent.
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict drove the move. Coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning February 28, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed. Nine vessels have been attacked since the conflict began, including a crude tanker near Iraq's Khor al Zubair port and a second off Kuwait that was taking on water and spilling oil on Thursday. The strait normally carries about 20% of global daily oil supply, and tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero.
On the demand side, China instructed its largest refiner to suspend diesel and gasoline export contracts, tightening global fuel supply further. Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production at its two main facilities after attacks on infrastructure, removing roughly 20% of global LNG supply from the market. Iraq began shutting down operations at the Rumaila oil field due to a lack of storage as tankers remain unable to leave the Gulf. President Trump posted that there would be "no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender," while Qatar's energy minister warned crude could reach $150 per barrel if the strait remains closed.
WTI daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $88.06. The near-term bias is bullish as price accelerates above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming a strong breakout from the prior consolidation band in the low-to-mid $60s. The widening gap between the shorter and longer EMAs signals strengthening trend momentum, while the Stochastic hovering deep in overbought territory reflects intense upside pressure rather than an immediate reversal signal at this stage of the move.
Initial support is located near the rising 50-day EMA around $65.20, with the 200-day EMA near $63.20 reinforcing a secondary floor if a corrective pullback develops. A break below this clustered moving-average area would indicate fading bullish momentum and expose the prior closing region around $62.00. On the upside, the psychologically significant $90.00 level acts as the next resistance to watch, and a sustained daily close above it would open the door to further gains toward higher uncharted territory in the current advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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