Japanese Yen flat lines after Fed holds rates, Japan warns on speculative moves
- USD/JPY holds steady near 160.45 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Fed held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday; traders brace for the US Q1 GDP and Core PCE data.
- Japan’s Katayama said authorities are on standby to take decisive action against speculative currency moves.
The USD/JPY pair steadies near a 21-month high of around 160.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines as Japanese authorities are on high alert for intervention after the Japanese Yen (JPY) breached the psychological level.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the benchmark interest rate steady in a range between 3.50% and 3.75% at the April policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed's 8–4 decision to leave the rate unchanged was its most divided since 1992, drawing three dissents from officials who no longer think the bank should communicate a bias towards easing.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that near-term inflation expectations are rising, adding that he would stay on the Board of Governors for an indefinite period, even after his chairmanship ends. A hawkish Fed holding rates could provide some support to the Greenback against the JPY.
The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation report for March will be the highlights later on Thursday.
On the other hand, potential intervention threats from Japanese officials might underpin the JPY and cap the upside for the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama highlighted a "high sense of urgency" regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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