Euro: Supported by ECB hikes and AI investment – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas projects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowing from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation rebounding to 3.0% and 3.3%. Activity is seen withstanding the energy shock thanks to investment in defence, AI and electrification. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to deliver two 25 bp hikes in 2026, while EUR/USD is forecast at 1.21 by Q4 2026 and 1.25 by Q4 2027.

Eurozone growth slows but stays resilient

"Eurozone growth would slow due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict."

"GDP growth, which reached 1.5% in 2025, would slow down to 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, while inflation would rebound to 3.0% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027 (compared to 2.1% in 2025)."

"Activity would nevertheless withstand the energy shock, supported by investment in defence, AI, and electrification, which should continue to boost intra-EU trade."

"As inflation rebounds, two 25-basis-point hikes in the ECB’s policy rate would take place in 2026 – with the first hike expected in June – pushing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%."

"In our base-case scenario (gradual normalisation of the Middle East situation with persistent price tensions), we expect the USD depreciation against the EUR to resume, albeit very gradually, amid broader diversification away from the dollar."

"We forecast EUR/USD to reach 1.21 by Q4 2026 and 1.25 by Q4 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)