USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar recovery, likely to be tested at 155.20
- USD/JPY's rebound from 152.85 lows has failed to find acceptance above 154.60.
- The Dollar appreciated on Thursday as PPI data boosted hopes of a Fed rate hike next week.
- Crude Oil's rally adds pressure on Japan's economic growth and is acting as a headwind for JPY recovery.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trimming some losses after a moderate reversal on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair struggles to remain above 154.00 on Friday after bouncing from seven-month lows below 153.00 earlier this week, still on track for a 1.4% weekly decline. The pair broke key support in the 155.20 area, which is likely to pose significant resistance for USD bulls.
The Greenback regained some lost ground on Thursday as US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures confirmed that the energy shock is boosting inflationary pressures and provided further reasons for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy at next week’s meeting. Markets have ramped up expectations of a rate hike next week, but they await US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, due later on Friday, for confirmation.
Apart from that, Oil prices have rallied further as the situation in the Gulf complicates. Brent Oil is trading at four-month highs, well above $100, after rallying beyond 15% in the last two weeks. These prices pose strong pressure on the Japanese economy and act as a headwind for further Yen appreciation.
Technical Analysis: Dollar broke the neckline of a bearish H&S formation
USD/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias after dropping nearly 4% over the last two weeks. Immediate price action shows a corrective reaction from oversold levels, but the pair broke the neckline of a large bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern at 155.20 earlier this week, which is a common figure highlighting trend shifts.
Momentum indicators in the daily chart remain deeply within bearish levels, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just above oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) well below zero, which suggests that rallies are likely to find sellers.
On the upside, bulls will meet resistance at the mentioned 155.20 area (August 2, September 3 lows), ahead of the August 4 high, at 156.76 and the August 19, 20 lows, near 158.00. Key support is at the January 27 low of 152.10, and below here, the October 17, 2025 lows near 149.50. The H&S's measured target is at the early October lows, near 146.60.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.20% | -0.55% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.62% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.04% | 0.12% | -0.14% | -0.50% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.18% | -0.07% | -0.46% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.63% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.25% | -0.37% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | 0.55% | 0.62% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.63% | 0.37% | 0.68% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.68% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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