Copper surges above $USD per ton amid supply concerns – Commerzbank

The Copper price has risen above the $USD per ton mark again this week. The increase was fueled by various statements made during a Copper industry conference in Shanghai, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

US tariff uncertainty fuels COMEX stockpiling

"The chair of a metals and mining research firm cautioned that Copper prices in the US may continue to trade at a premium due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, which would likely lead to further stockpiling at the COMEX and a depletion of stocks outside the US. Additionally, there are concerns about raw material shortages, with the firm estimating that the Copper concentrate market will be undersupplied by roughly 500,000 tons next year."

"Furthermore, a representative of a Canadian mining company pointed out that global smelter utilization rates have fallen to a record-low of 75% due to the raw material shortage. This rate could decline even further if supply conditions don't improve. Despite these warnings and gloomy reports, the latest data shows little evidence of a slowdown in Copper production."

"As we've noted on multiple occasions, China has maintained high levels of metal production. However, plans to build new smelting capacities of 2 million tons have reportedly been suspended, according to an official from China's Nonferrous Metal Industry Association at the conference. Additionally, available LME stocks have increased recently, rising by approximately 100,000 tons from their June lows to the highest level in nearly nine months. Consequently, we see limited short-term upside potential for Copper prices."