WTI Crude Oil tests north of $80 for the first time since mid-2024

• WTI prices continue to spike on the Strait of Hormuz shutdown as the US-Iran conflict enters its sixth day.
• US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 triggered retaliatory attacks across the Gulf and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply at risk.
• OPEC+ agreed to add 206K barrels per day in April, though analysts warn the increase is largely symbolic while Hormuz transit remains shut.
• Friday's US NFP report (consensus around 60K) adds further event risk.

WTI surged over 6% on Thursday, blowing through $80 per barrel for the first time since June 2024 and extending one of the sharpest rallies in recent years. Price has gained roughly 19% since the strikes began on February 28, accelerating from around $67 into Thursday's session high just above $80. The move has left the daily candle as a large-bodied bullish bar with almost no upper wick, suggesting buyers were in control throughout the session with little sign of profit-taking heading toward the market close.

The catalyst is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following the joint US-Israeli operation on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed on March 2, warning that any vessel attempting to transit would be targeted. Tanker traffic has since dropped to near zero, with at least five vessels damaged and over 150 ships stranded outside the waterway.

Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all transits, and Iranian drone strikes on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities took roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity offline. Iraq has begun shutting off production as exports through the strait become increasingly constrained.

OPEC+ moved quickly, agreeing on March 1 to add 206,000 barrels per day in April, above the pre-crisis expectation of 137,000 barrels per day. However, analysts at Rystad Energy noted the increase is largely symbolic while the strait remains inaccessible, as much of the group's spare capacity sits in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of which rely on Gulf export routes. Goldman Sachs warned that a temporary spike to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage points.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, forecast around 60K, adds further uncertainty to already-weary traders.

WTI daily chart

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $79.78. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends well above both the rising 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming a strengthening upside trend structure. The sharp acceleration from the low-$60s has opened a clear topside break from the prior consolidation band, with the Stochastic oscillator pushing into overbought territory and signaling strong but stretched upside momentum. While this warns of the risk of a pause or modest pullback, current positioning of price relative to the moving averages favors dip-buying interest over a deeper reversal as long as recent gains hold above former resistance levels.

Initial support emerges near $74.50–$75.00, where recent breakout levels align with the rising 50-day EMA zone, and a break below there would expose the mid-$70s and then the $70.00–$71.00 area. Below that, the $67.00–$68.00 band marks a deeper corrective floor coinciding with prior consolidation. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen in the low-$80s, where the current rally is testing fresh highs, with a sustained close above that region opening the door toward the mid-$80s. As long as WTI holds above the mid-$70s support cluster, the technical structure points to further upside attempts after potential overbought digestion.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)