Crypto Weekly Radar: Iran strikes paused, Bitcoin back above $70K, sentiment weak amid $98M in token unlocks
- Trump suspends strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure, easing pressure on risk assets.
- Bitcoin returns above $70,000 amid renewed risk appetite as geopolitical tensions ease.
- Sentiment remains in extreme fear territory, with slow inflows into digital investment products weighing.
- Nearly $100 million in token unlocks this week, led by a $48 million Toncoin release, could drive market volatility.
The cryptocurrency market is generally rising on Monday after United States (US) President Donald Trump instructed the Department of War to suspend planned attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure.
A 3% increase in market capitalisation to $2.53 trillion, as shown by CoinGecko data, reflects the immediate impact of easing geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin (BTC) is back above $70,000, Ethereum (ETH) above $2,100, and Ripple (XRP) has reclaimed $1.40 as immediate support.
US suspends Iran strikes amid talks
President Trump is optimistic about ongoing discussions with the Iranian regime, as the Middle East war enters its fourth week. Prior to Trump’s post on Truth Social on Monday, the US had announced targeted strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure unless the chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz is removed.
“The United States and Iran have had productive discussions over the past two days toward fully resolving hostilities in the Middle East. As talks continue this week, I’ve ordered a five-day pause on any military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, contingent on progress,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Iran had issued a stern warning that it would strike energy and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf region if the US and Israel carried on with the planned attacks.
Despite the suspension, geopolitical tensions will likely remain high until the US and Iran reach an unacceptable agreement. Oil prices remain high despite adjusting to $89 on Monday from near $100. Sustained high energy prices could have a lasting negative impact on the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that global inflation could rise amid slow economic growth, with countries that rely heavily on Oil from the Gulf region suffering the most.
Bitcoin’s surge above $70,000
Bitcoin holds above $70,000 from a daily low of $67,445, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This level would continue to play a critical role in the crypto king’s short-term outlook. Sustained closing above $70,000 could keep risk appetite elevated while affirming a high probability of prices moving to the $80,000 level. Still, decisive closings below the same $70,000 pivotal level could lead to investor exhaustion and a sustained correction targeting the lower $60,000s.
Weak sentiment prevails amid cooling capital inflows
Risk appetite for crypto assets remains significantly low, according to the Fear & Greed Index, which has largely remained in the extreme fear territory since the beginning of the year.
Extreme fear can indicate that investors are too worried. On the flip side, such periods could present an opportunity to buy when prices are low and ride the wave up before the market overheads or overextends.
Meanwhile, inflows into crypto investment products slowed to $230 million last week, according to a CoinShares report. Approximately $405 million in outflows were recorded following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to leave rates unchanged and the central bank’s hawkish stance on the possibility of easing its monetary policy in 2026.
“Digital asset investment products recorded US$230m in inflows last week, marking a notable slowdown compared to prior weeks. While the prevailing view attributes this to the increasingly protracted Iran conflict weighing on sentiment, we believe the more likely cause is the market’s 'hawkish pause' interpretation of the US Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting,” CoinShares report states.
Potential supply shock ahead of $100 million token unlocks
Several token unlock events, totalling nearly $100 million, are expected this week. Toncoin (TON) will experience the largest unlock, worth $48 million, on Tuesday. This accounts for 10.3% of the market capitalisation.
Other token unlocks of interest for investors include River’s (RIVER) approximately $26 million and Celetias’ (TIA) $94,000, both on Monday. Walrus Protocol’s $29 million on Friday and Jupiter’s (JUP) $8 million on Saturday, among others.
Token unlocks are considered scheduled supply shocks, which can result in higher volatility. Anticipatory selling can occur before the events. However, the exact impact of the unlocks is nuanced, with instances of pricing in effects.
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.
Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.
Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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