Ripple Price Forecast: XRP tests 50-day EMA support amid cooling buy-side pressure
- XRP extends its decline for the second consecutive day, testing the 50-day EMA support on Thursday.
- Mild inflows into XRP spot ETFs and cooling retail demand could limit recovery potential.
- XRP faces sustained downward pressure, with the 100-day and 200-day EMAs still trending lower.
Ripple (XRP) is struggling to stay above support at $1.41 as of writing on Thursday, reflecting a broader correction in the crypto market. The remittance token was rejected at its weekly high of $1.46 on Wednesday, and is currently staring at a potential pullback below the pivotal $1.40 demand zone.
XRP risks further decline amid fading institutional and retail demand
Interest in XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) appears to be fading this week, with roughly $5.42 million in inflows recorded through Wednesday, compared with $55.39 million the previous week.
Inflows totaled $2.42 million on Wednesday, following muted activity the previous day. Meanwhile, cumulative inflows average $1.28 billion and total net assets $1.09 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Steady institutional demand is required to help shape sentiment and sustain XRP’s recovery.
The XRP derivatives market has not shown signs of a significant turnaround despite sentiment improving to 46 in the fear territory on Thursday, up from 32 the previous day, according to the crypto Fear & Greed Index. Higher sentiment readings suggest an increasing appetite for crypto assets.
However, retail demand has remained relatively low, with futures Open Interest (OI) steadying at $2.58 billion on Thursday. CoinGlass data shows that OI peaked at $10.94 billion in July, coinciding with XRP hitting a new record high of $3.66. This underscores the positive impact of persistently rising retail demand on the bullish outlook.
Technical outlook: XRP tests baseline support as overhead pressure weighs
XRP trades at $1.41, maintaining a capped tone as it sits beneath all the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA at $1.41 hovers just overhead as immediate dynamic resistance, with the 100-day EMA at $1.54 and the 200-day EMA at $1.78 reinforcing a broader bearish structure.
A long-standing downward resistance trendline remains unchallenged, with its projected break level at $1.67 still well above the market price. Momentum readings send mixed signals, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is slightly positive on the daily chart, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 53, showcasing a neutral tone. The Money Flow Index (MFI) near 79 hints at overbought conditions and the risk of renewed selling from higher levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the daily open at $1.43. A sustained close above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure. Further up, the 100-day EMA at $1.54 acts as the next obstacle, ahead of the descending trendline break level near $1.67, with the 200-day EMA at $1.78 capping the broader recovery outlook.
On the downside, the pivotal $1.40 demand zone serves as the initial support if XRP extends its decline below the 50-day EMA at $1.41. The weekly open at $1.39 reinforces the above support, but a decisive break here could see XRP slide back toward lower levels, consistent with the overall bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.
Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.
Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.
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