Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC slides to key technical support following hawkish Fed tone, ETF outflows
- Bitcoin price nears the key support zone around $75,500 on Thursday, after correcting by nearly 4% over the last three days.
- US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $137.77 million on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of withdrawals this week.
- Fed’s hawkish tone and uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks dampened risk appetite, weighing on BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near key support around $75,500 on Thursday after losing nearly 4% through mid-week. This price correction is supported by fading institutional demand, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording their third consecutive day of withdrawals so far this week. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tone and uncertainty around the US-Iran peace talks continue to pressure risk sentiment, leaving the Crypto King at a critical juncture where a breakdown or rebound could determine its next directional move.
Institutional outflow pushes BTC lower
Institutional demand started the week on a negative note. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $137.77 million on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive daily withdrawal this week. If this outflow continues and intensifies, BTC could see further price corrections.
A Glassnode report highlighted that the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization remains trapped below key resistance, with the True Market Mean continuing to cap upside attempts. At the same time, support clusters near $65,000–$70,000 provide a tentative floor.
The analyst concluded, “Until a clear expansion in spot demand or institutional inflows materializes, the most likely outcome remains a choppy, range-bound environment. The next directional move will likely be driven not by positioning alone, but by whether real capital steps in to absorb supply and reclaim higher levels.”
Hawkish Fed tone, weight on BTC
Bitcoin price extended its correction mid-week and closed below $76,000 on Wednesday. The price correction in the Crypto King came amid the Fed hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate, which favors the US Dollar (USD) bulls and keeps a lid on risk-sensitive assets such as BTC.
The Fed decided to keep interest rate unchanged at the 3.50%-3.75% range at its April meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected by market participants. Notably, the decision saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement, while another one dissented in favour of a rate cut.
In the post-meeting press conference, the outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the debate was about the neutrality of the tone and not the need to hike interest rates. Traders, however, sharply reduced bets on any further Fed easing in 2026 and are now pricing in an over 10% chance of a rate increase by year-end.
The decision comes at a time when the war-driven surge in energy prices has been fueling inflationary concerns amid stalled US-Iran peace talks. Uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks has emerged as a short-term factor capping Bitcoin’s upside momentum, as geopolitical risks continue to dampen risk appetite across markets. BTC corrected nearly 4% through Wednesday and, as of writing, hovers around $76,100 on Thursday.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Rejected at the overhead supply, now near key support
Bitcoin’s price is near a key support zone on Thursday, trading at $76,100 after being rejected by key overhead supply around $79,000 earlier in the week. BTC is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered just below $75,645 and $73,660, respectively, and remains above the previously broken parallel channel.
The Crypto King has reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (drawn from the January high to the February low) near $74,487 and is now hovering above the channel’s upper boundary around $75,680, suggesting dip-buying interest persists even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram sits below zero on the daily chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in neutral-positive territory.
On the downside, immediate support aligns between the former channel top at $75,680 and the 100-day EMA at $75,645, with additional support emerging at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $74,487 and the 50-day EMA near $73,660 before stronger demand zones closer to $68,950 and the channel floor near $63,035.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50% retracement around $78,962, followed by the psychological $80,000 area, ahead of the 200-day EMA near $82,353 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437, with higher hurdles at $84,410, a horizontal resistance level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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