Ripple Price Forecast: XRP upside stays limited despite renewed capital inflows
- XRP finds support at the 50-day EMA, but a weak technical structure and muted retail interest cap upside potential.
- XRP digital investment products received $25 million in inflows last week after one week of outflows.
- Momentum indicators signal persistent bearish sentiment, as the RSI trends downward toward the critical 50 midline.
Ripple (XRP) is trading under increasing sell-side pressure as of writing on Monday. A near-term support at $1.41 suggests that dip-buying remains steady despite overhanging resistance at $1.53 and $1.78.
Risk appetite has continued to improve amid renewed optimism for the United States (US)-Iran peace. Despite the US President Donald Trump canceling the peace talks scheduled for last Sunday in Pakistan, Iran has reportedly sent a new proposal to the White House.
The proposal seeks to delay the topic of Iran’s nuclear program while focusing on objectives such as opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. It remains unclear whether the White House will act on the proposal, as Trump has insisted that the US has the upper hand in the negotiations.
Broader market sentiment continues to improve with the crypto Fear & Greed Index holding at 47 in the fear territory on Monday, up from 33 the previous day. The index held in the extreme fear territory last month, underscoring the gradual but steady turnaround in investor risk appetite.
XRP recovery outlook lags on renewed institutional demand
Interest in XRP digital investment products recorded $25 million in inflows last week, bringing total assets under management to nearly $2.58 billion. The influx follows outflows of $56.2 million in the previous week and underscores an improving appetite for risk assets.
“The market now turns to the FOMC decision on 28–29 April, which is likely contributing to caution at the margin,” a CoinShares report states.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–$3.75% range on Wednesday. Of importance would be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s new conference after the meeting, where investors will seek clues on the central bank’s policy direction, especially with the US-Iran conflict still pressuring global markets.
Meanwhile, retail demand for XRP perpetual futures contracts remains subdued, with Open Interest (OI) averaging $2.55 billion on Monday. Although the OI marks a slight increase from $2.50 billion the previous day, it pales in comparison to the record $10.94 billion in July. In other words, investors lack conviction in XRP’s ability to sustain an uptrend.
Technical outlook: XRP tests key support
XRP is holding just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $1.42 while remaining capped beneath the descending trendline break level at $1.43 and, more importantly, the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.53 and $1.78. This configuration keeps the broader tone capped despite a still mildly constructive backdrop, as the RSI holds near a neutral 52 on the daily chart. Moreover, the MACD histogram stays marginally positive on the same chart but has been losing momentum in recent sessions.
On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the 50-day EMA at $1.42. A daily close back below this pivot would expose the SuperTrend indicator line as the next notable floor near $1.31. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the descending trendline break area around $1.43, and only a sustained move above that barrier would open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $1.53.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Open Interest, funding rate FAQs
Higher Open Interest is associated with higher liquidity and new capital inflow to the market. This is considered the equivalent of increase in efficiency and the ongoing trend continues. When Open Interest decreases, it is considered a sign of liquidation in the market, investors are leaving and the overall demand for an asset is on a decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors.
Funding fees bridge the difference between spot prices and prices of futures contracts of an asset by increasing liquidation risks faced by traders. A consistently high and positive funding rate implies there is a bullish sentiment among market participants and there is an expectation of a price hike. A consistently negative funding rate for an asset implies a bearish sentiment, indicating that traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to fall and a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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