Polish Zloty: Scope for weakness against Euro as NBP underwhelms – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland left rates at 3.75% and provided limited new guidance, shifting focus to Governor Glapinski’s press conference. With markets already pricing around 85bp of tightening, ING sees a high bar for a hawkish surprise. They expect some easing in rate expectations and a rise in EUR/PLN, potentially back above 4.320, helped by record gas prices.
NBP stance leaves zloty vulnerable
"As expected, the National Bank of Poland kept rates unchanged at 3.75% yesterday. The statement offered little new guidance, leaving attention on Governor Adam Glapinski’s press conference today at 3pm local time."
"We expect a somewhat more hawkish tone than in July, reflecting higher inflation and a firmer outlook. However, with markets pricing in around 85bp of tightening, the bar for a hawkish surprise is high."
"We therefore see scope for some easing in rate expectations and a rise in EUR/PLN, also supported by record gas prices, potentially taking the pair back above 4.320."
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