SpaceX IPO Approaches: Behind the $75 Billion Fundraising Rumors, What Is the Capital Market Betting On?

TradingKey - US tech media outlet The Information reported that SpaceX plans to submit an IPO prospectus to regulators as early as this week or next, with advisors estimating the offering could raise over $75 billion.

If the latest reports are true, SpaceX is no longer just "testing the waters" of the capital markets but has entered a stage of substantive progress.

The report also mentioned that the allocation to retail investors could exceed 20%, though relevant details have not yet been finalized.

Why is the market paying such close attention? What is the valuation logic behind SpaceX?

This news has rattled the market not just because "SpaceX is going public," but because it shifts the company from rumors of a "possible 2026 IPO" to a more specific execution window.

According to previous Reuters reports, SpaceX considered a Nasdaq listing in early March and aims to enter the Nasdaq 100 Index as soon as possible; earlier reports indicated that internal figures and banks have been continuously upwardly revising the IPO timeline, fundraising scale, and valuation anchors.

Looking at the valuation trajectory, SpaceX's capitalization process is highly characteristic: In December last year, Reuters reported that secondary market trading had pushed the company's valuation to $800 billion; by January this year, Reuters cited sources saying some banks estimated its IPO valuation could exceed $1.5 trillion; another report in early March further raised the target valuation to approximately $1.75 trillion.

The real support for this high valuation is not just the Elon Musk brand effect, but the fact that SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. In 2025, SpaceX achieved approximately $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue, with profits reaching about $8 billion, and Starlink serves as the primary revenue engine, contributing roughly 50% to 80% of total revenue.

This means the capital markets no longer value a single launch business, but rather the strategic combination of "launch capability + satellite internet + future space infrastructure."

What does a $75 billion fundraising mean? What are capital markets truly paying for?

If the fundraising scale truly exceeds $75 billion, the signal becomes even stronger. Based on this volume, SpaceX is clearly not just replenishing cash but preparing for more aggressive expansion.

According to a Reuters report last December, the SpaceX CFO stated that the company was preparing for a potential 2026 IPO, with proceeds to be used for increasing Starship launch frequency, advancing space AI data centers, building "Moonbase Alpha," and supporting uncrewed and crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. In other words, this financing is more about "adding ammunition" to a long-term narrative rather than plugging short-term financial gaps.

However, high valuation and large-scale fundraising are never the same thing. The true pricing logic lies in whether the market is willing to pay for Starlink's growth, Starship's commercialization progress, and Musk's vision of "turning space into new infrastructure."

In recent reports, management and underwriters have been continuously raising expectations, indicating that there is still significant room for imagination regarding SpaceX in the capital markets; however, once it enters the public market, investors will focus on more than just the story, but also on whether profits are sustainable, whether launches are stable, and whether cash flow can sustain this pace of expansion.

Therefore, the most noteworthy aspect of this news is not simply whether SpaceX will go public, but that it is transforming itself from a massive private company into an asset that needs to be repriced by the public market.

If the prospectus is indeed submitted this week or next, the focus of market discussion will likely shift rapidly from the veracity of rumors to more practical questions such as "whether the valuation is reasonable," "how much Starlink is worth," and "when Starship will deliver commercial returns."