Anthropic Surpasses OpenAI. Secondary Market Valuation Hits One Trillion for the First Time Is the AI Market Already Overheating? Should You Still Invest in Anthropic Now?

TradingKey - According to reports from Business Insider, AI startup Anthropic's valuation in the private secondary market has surpassed $1 trillion, overtaking OpenAI in the process.

The outlet stated that traders interviewed observed a significant decline in secondary market demand for OpenAI. Despite the company's valuation reaching $852 billion in its last funding round—more than double Anthropic's valuation during the same period—OpenAI is now trading at a lower price than Anthropic in the secondary market.

Anthropic Overtakes: Why It Surpassed OpenAI

Kelly Rodriques, CEO of Forge Global, a leading private secondary market exchange, stated that Anthropic’s valuation on the platform is currently hovering around $1 trillion, while OpenAI is valued at $880 billion, a slight increase from its March funding round. Ken Sawyer, co-founder and managing partner of Saints Capital, a venture secondary market firm, revealed that an Anthropic shareholder recently listed shares for sale at a price implying a corporate valuation of $1.15 trillion.

However, just three months ago, when Anthropic completed its most recent funding round, its valuation was only $380 billion.

Glen Anderson, CEO of Rainmaker Securities, an investment bank focusing on the private securities market, stated that Anthropic is experiencing an epic rally as everyone seeks to seize era-defining opportunities in the AI sector, with Anthropic firmly established as an industry leader.

However, Anderson does not believe this implies that OpenAI has plummeted. OpenAI itself is also attempting to tighten control over secondary market trading; its spokesperson previously stated that investors should remain highly vigilant of any firm claiming to offer access to OpenAI equity, noting that OpenAI has established authorized channels via banks and does not charge any fees.

Furthermore, the market frenzy surrounding Anthropic is not entirely based on its improving fundamentals. Anderson believes one reason for the surging demand for Anthropic is the company's public standoff with the Department of Defense, stating, "People view this company as a hero because it dares to challenge powerful government agencies."

On the other hand, much of this buying spree is driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). "Many care more about the status of being an Anthropic investor than the actual return on investment, which is the core factor driving up the share price." Consequently, many investors from venture capital firms and family offices are eager to hold Anthropic stock regardless of the price.

From a fundamental perspective, Anthropic's revenue is indeed growing rapidly, and its AI coding assistant, Claude Code, is also showing strong momentum in the market.

Is the AI market already overheating?

Anderson stated that there are currently three companies being fiercely contested in the secondary market: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. Although these companies are all linked to the AI narrative, AI investment as a whole has not yet reached a level of overheating. Investors are no longer solely focused on the AI narrative; their investment logic has shifted toward revenue efficiency.

The phenomenon where market demand for Anthropic far exceeds that of OpenAI also reflects this logic.

Earlier this month, Anthropic announced that its annualized revenue surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI's $25 billion for the same period. Compared to model capabilities, which are now easier to catch up with, the commercialization curve may constitute a greater competitive advantage. Analysts believe that revenue growth determines the valuation floor because it signifies that the company has begun translating technical advantages into predictable cash flow increases. In this regard, Anthropic is the undisputed leader.

Secondly, Claude Code forms the cornerstone of Anthropic's valuation. Programming is the area with the clearest path to commercialization and the strongest willingness to pay among AI applications, and Claude Code is considered one of the fastest-growing products in the history of enterprise software. Since its launch last May, its annualized revenue surpassed $1 billion within six months and soared to $2.5 billion by early 2026, outstripping the growth rates of ChatGPT, Slack, and GitHub Copilot during the same periods.

Technically, its performance ranked first in the SWE-bench Verified test with a score of 80.8%, and it is widely recognized as the most powerful agentic programming assistant currently available.

For such a company, market perception has shifted from a model company to an infrastructure provider that could dominate the development entry point, thereby creating the potential for a higher valuation.

In contrast, OpenAI's AI narrative has failed to provide sustained surprises to the market or consistently deliver on the high expectations placed upon it; OpenAI's story no longer triggers a valuation re-rating. This also demonstrates that the market is not placing frenzied bets on the AI track but has instead shifted to evaluating commercialization progress. Under this logical shift, Anthropic's predictable and sustained revenue growth is expected to bring new valuation surprises.