OpenAI Shock Hits Market First, Can Big Four Earnings Revive AI Faith?

TradingKey - On April 28, Eastern Time, news that OpenAI's first-quarter revenue missed expectations was the first to rattle the market, fueling concerns over the pace of AI monetization. As panic spread quickly, an even greater test followed as Google ( GOOGL ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Meta Platforms ( META )—the four tech giants—will report their first-quarter 2026 results after the close on April 29, while Apple ( AAPL) will follow with its results after the bell on April 30. Collectively, these four companies account for nearly a quarter of the S&P 500's weighting, and their performance will directly sway the short-term direction of U.S. equities.

OpenAI "Ghost Stories" Strike; Industry Chain Suffers Collective Setback

According to The Wall Street Journal, ChatGPT developer OpenAI missed its first-quarter revenue and user growth targets; the company aimed for 1 billion weekly active users, but actual figures were around 900 million. While Sam Altman revealed in January that the API business added approximately $1 billion in ARR in a single month, the company's overall monthly revenue has since missed targets several times, with growth momentum facing setbacks and the AI application layer beginning to see bottlenecks in scaling.

Capital markets were quick to vote with their feet, leading to a sell-off in the "OpenAI ecosystem." SoftBank fell nearly 10% in Tokyo, losing about $18.07 billion in market value, while its U.S. OTC shares dropped approximately 12%.

OpenAI's computing partner Oracle ( ORCL) fell 4.05% despite the two parties having signed a $300 billion, five-year cooperation agreement. Top-tier cloud partner CoreWeave ( CRWV) fell 5.83%.

Chip stocks were also affected, with NVIDIA ( NVDA) falling 1.59%, while Broadcom ( AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD) both fell more than 3%, putting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index under pressure.

Before the earnings season frenzy has even begun, the AI sector has already felt a chill from the OpenAI news. This unexpected episode has raised the bar for the upcoming earnings season; the market is no longer satisfied with tech giants merely meeting expectations, but urgently needs to see evidence of actual AI monetization.

Forecast data for the Big Four

Following the impact of OpenAI's "horror stories," the earnings quality and forward guidance of the four tech giants have become critical anchors for the market.

Google: The market expects first-quarter revenue of $92.2 billion, up 20.6% year-over-year; earnings per share (EPS) of $2.64, a 6.1% year-over-year decrease. Google Cloud is viewed as a key channel for AI monetization, with market expectations that its cloud revenue growth could reach 50%. Google's stock has risen approximately 11.75% year-to-date.

Microsoft: The market expects first-quarter revenue of $81.4 billion, up 16.2% year-over-year; earnings per share (EPS) of $4.07, up 17.6% year-over-year. Microsoft's Azure cloud business previously maintained a growth rate in the 26%-27% range for three consecutive quarters, which management attributed to capacity constraints. Morgan Stanley expects Azure's growth rate to potentially rebound to 39% this quarter. Microsoft's stock has fallen more than 10% year-to-date.

Amazon: First-quarter revenue is expected to be approximately $177.2 billion, up 13% year-over-year; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected at approximately $1.63, up 2.5% year-over-year. Growth is primarily driven by the AWS cloud business and advertising. AWS is expected to grow by approximately 25% year-over-year. Amazon's stock has risen approximately 12.5% year-to-date.

Meta Platforms: First-quarter revenue is expected to be approximately $55.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31%-33%; earnings per share are projected at $6.67-$7.51, up 4%-8% year-over-year. The company previously provided a guidance range of $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion.

Cloud Services: The Key Focus of the Earnings Report

In the AI-driven computing cycle, cloud infrastructure has become the area of highest certainty for beneficiaries. The market is paying close attention to cloud service data from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, which will be the direct basis for investors to judge whether the AI investment return thesis holds.

Google Cloud is seen as the next growth engine, with the market expecting its first-quarter cloud revenue growth to rise to around 50%. For Microsoft, Morgan Stanley ( MS) expects Azure revenue growth to reach 39% this quarter, an improvement over last quarter's 31%. Amazon's AWS cloud business is expected to grow by 25%. If the three cloud giants do not deliver growth rates that satisfy the market, valuation pressure will follow.

In contrast, Meta's AI infrastructure is mainly used for ad recommendations, news feed ranking, and open-source model R&D, and it does not sell cloud services externally. Therefore, the market cannot use "cloud revenue" to measure its AI returns; ad growth, ARPU, and capital expenditure efficiency have become the windows for observing its AI development. Given that capital expenditures could reach $135 billion in 2026, Meta needs stellar ad growth to respond to market scrutiny regarding its investment efficiency.

Capital Expenditure: Returns as a Key Variable

Market consensus has already fully priced in the four companies' combined 2026 capital expenditures of over $600 billion. The impact of OpenAI missing its first-quarter targets has led investors to subject AI investment returns to more rigorous scrutiny than in the past.

Goldman Sachs ( GS) noted that the primary concern for the market is not the strength of demand, but whether capital expenditure can be further increased. If the growth rate of capital spending slows, it will directly impact the validity of the AI narrative given current high costs. Goldman also pointed out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen over 40% year-to-date, and the sector's performance is shifting from fundamental support to expectation-driven; any slight deviation in earnings data could trigger sharp volatility.

Notably, these four companies are releasing earnings reports within the same timeframe. Google's conference call is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET, while Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are all set for 2:30 p.m., leaving investors with virtually no buffer time.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the market expecting the benchmark rate to remain between 3.50% and 3.75%. This could be the most information-dense few hours of 2026 so far.

The OpenAI incident has provided investors with an early reality check, and they have become noticeably more sober. They are no longer pinning AI investment returns on narratives but are demanding actual performance. All eyes are on which giant can be the first to deliver results sufficient to restore market confidence.