Nike Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Low as $35.15 Support Comes Into Focus

TradingKey - Nike closed at $35.51 on September 18, down 2.34% from the previous closing price of $36.36 and close to the reported price of $35.54. According to the chart, the stock ended the day at a new 52-week low and extended its decline within a descending channel. Mixed reports are still showing North America and the Wholesale and Performance segments improving, while Greater China, Nike Direct, Converse and competitive pressures remain weak points under Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elliott Hill. Analysts expect Nike will report substantially lower results for the fiscal first quarter of 2027, set to release on October 1. Given the current environment, the market believes expectations may finally have been set low enough to result in an upside surprise.

Wholesale Is Improving, but Direct Remains Weak

Nike’s results show channel-level revenue breakdown for the quarter ended May 31. The company reported a 1% decline in reported and a 4% currency-neutral decline in overall revenue to $10.97 billion. Nike’s wholesale revenue grew 4% to $6.6 billion, while revenue from Nike Digital and company-owned stores declined 12% and 7% respectively. Conversely, Nike’s revenue from company-owned stores also declined.

This shows that Elliott Hill’s first step of the turnaround plan is warranted. The increased focus on rebuilding the company’s wholesale relationships and integrated marketplace is positively impacting the company’s relationship with its wholesale partners. That said, Nike’s direct channels still require a great deal of focus.

As such, for October 1, positive wholesale shifts will not be sufficient to support the company’s results. I would also require evidence to suggest Nike Direct and Digital are not experiencing further deterioration.

North America Is the Strongest Regional Bright Spot

North America continues to be the best performing region of Nike’s turnaround efforts. Nike’s FY2026 results showed the Nike Brand’s North America division reported a 5% increase in revenue to $20.5 billion, and a 14% increase in EBIT.

The company is also shifting its focus to performance categories, from the previous focus on lifestyle categories. During the recent period, the company also noted positive trending shifts in performance within the running and basketball categories.

Finally, the company’s inventory was approximately $7.5 billion at fiscal year-end, flat from the prior year, while management said it was discounting less on Nike Digital.

Prior to the company’s focus shift to performance categories, the company also suffered from excessive promotional activities and weaker brand scarcity and brand erosion.

China Remains the Biggest Operating Risk

China is still the biggest issue. In Q4, footwear and apparel sales in China both declined. Footwear sales in China have fallen for eight consecutive quarters. Management has set strategies to mitigate the decline. They plan to further control their retail channel and strengthen their positioning. They are also expanding their presence on other platforms, like Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Nike’s website and app. These strategies could improve pricing control and brand positioning. However, they may negatively impact their sales in the short-term. In the October report, the quality of Nike’s China sales will be the most indicated and impacted sales. A positive change in sales could show improvement for Nike. Further declines could show loss in market share against regional competitors.

Mbappé’s Exit Adds Symbolic Competitive Pressure

With the loss of Mbappé, there will be additional pressure to perform against competitors. There will not be a large financial effect from Mbappé's loss. From a public relations standpoint, it is negative. It shows Nike is no longer the first choice for one of the best players in the world. This will negatively impact Nike against their competitors for market share. Lamine Yamal moved to Adidas, while Mbappé signed with On this year. Additionally, Nike has lost its position as the supplier of Premier League match balls to Puma. These contract losses, impact Nike’s competitive dominance the most. Nike has other top football contracts, and the loss of Mbappé does create a need to evaluate Nike’s position to capture leadership in sports and pop culture.

S&P 100 Removal Shows How Far Sentiment Has Fallen

Nike is being removed from the S&P 100 effective prior to the market open on September 21, after 18 years in the index.

S&P Dow Jones Indices said the quarterly rebalance was intended to keep the index representative of its market-capitalization range and did not give a company-specific reason for Nike’s removal.

Rising concerns of a membership review of Nike’s shares in the Dow has been noted by Reuters.

A review of expectations by investors, means a company is valued at multiples of earnings it commanded in better days, despite negative business results. A valuation in the low 20s has become the new ‘normal’ for Nike. This has eroded the faith in the company’s premium valuation command.

October 1 Earnings Are the Next Real Test

Nike has confirmed its first quarter results for fiscal 2027 will be released after market close on October 1. A conference call will follow at 2 p.m. (PT).

Current estimates place revenue at approximately $11.3 billion, with earnings around $0.44 per share.

As I always mention, the highlights for me are in the details, and I will be looking for management’s commentary regarding the following for the remainder of fiscal 2027: North America, China, wholesale, Nike Direct, gross margin, inventory and any potential negative revisions to the outlook.

The expectations are typically set higher for each report, but the bar has been set lower this time, no doubt due to the current economic environment. If management reaffirms its confidence in North America and the wholesale business, the stock is likely to benefit.

Nike Technical Analysis: $35.15 Is the Immediate Downside Test

NKE closed yesterday at $35.51, a loss for the session and for the year, after failing to hold support at $35.75. Below that level, the next support is seen at $35.15. For the near term, the trend is down, and given the position of the moving average at $37.25, the near term outlook is negative.

Nike Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

RSI at 31 is near oversold territory. In the near term, a test of the $35.15 level is likely. A break below that level may lead to further losses to the lower boundary of the channel at $34.58. The first recovery level is $35.75. Selling pressure is expected at $36.40 to $36.59, and strong selling pressure is anticipated above the channel at $37.25 to $37.38.

Why is Nike stock in focus now?

Nike is currently trading near a fresh 52 week low, and is expected to release its earnings on 10/1. North America and wholesale are showing some improvement, but Direct, Converse and China are still showing negative figures. Also, recent news of Mbappé endorsing and switching to a competitor of Nike is showing further negative sentiment.

What level confirms a stronger NKE recovery?

The short-term trend would improve if $35.75 is retaken. The improved trend would be further assisted by a move over $36.59 and $37.25 to $37.38. A further improvement would require a break of the channel. In the short-term, the most bearish scenario would have support at $35.15, with further support at $34.58. Improving trend would be shown by a move over $36.59.

Bottom Line

The outlook on Nike is still neutral to negative. North America and Wholesale are showing some improvement, but Channels, Nike Direct and other negatives are still outweighing the positives. Negative news is still showing lower valuation. Earnings on 10/1 need to show that negatives are not concentrated in only a few channels. Technically, I am still bearish, and expect further declines to $35.15, with further support expected at $34.58. A move over $36.59 would show an improvement in trend.