Euro weakens as strong ADP data and Trump’s Iran comments boost US Dollar

• United States (US) private employers added 42,250 workers, supporting the USD.
• Trump says the US “may have to give Iran another hit,” increasing demand for the USD as a safe-haven.
• ECB officials warn about long-term Eurozone growth challenges despite resilient labor-market conditions.

The EUR/USD pair weakens toward the 1.1600 region on Tuesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following solid labor-market data and rising Treasury yields, while mixed developments in the Eurozone limit support for the shared currency.

The latest ADP employment report showed that United States (US) private employers added 42,250 jobs in the first week of May, marking the strongest reading since the series began in October 2025. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

Additional USD demand emerged after US President Donald Trump adopted a more aggressive tone regarding Iran. Trump stated that “we may have to give Iran another hit” and added that “Iran is begging to make a deal,” reviving concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East and increasing safe-haven flows into the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, Eurozone sentiment remained fragile after European Central Bank (ECB) officials highlighted concerns about the region’s long-term growth outlook. A recent ECB report noted that labor market trends and immigration continue supporting economic activity, but policymakers warned that structural demographic challenges may weigh on future growth prospects.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1599, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1638 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1710. The pair is pressing lows near the only nearby horizontal support at 1.1592, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into oversold territory around 27, hinting that while downside pressure dominates, the pace of the decline could slow if sellers hesitate at this floor.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1612, followed by 1.1624 and the 1.1635 barrier that aligns with the 20-period SMA just above at 1.1638, forming a dense cap before the broader resistance of the 100-period SMA at 1.1710. On the downside, a clear break under 1.1592 would expose fresh lows, reinforcing the prevailing bearish structure on the 4-hour timeframe.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)