Euro holds the line as its own PMIs slide into contraction
- Eurozone flash PMIs slumped deeper below the growth line, with the services gauge leading the disappointment.
- The Euro held its ground anyway, propped up by a US session bout of Dollar weakness rather than any homegrown strength.
- The pair is pinned to its 200-day average, with US inflation data and a wave of ECB speakers shaping the week ahead.
The Euro finished the Thursday session roughly where it began, which only looks like resilience until you read the data behind it. May flash surveys were a mess: the Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped further below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, manufacturing slipped, and services fell to one of its weakest readings in months. A currency holding flat on a print like that is not strong, it is being carried.
Carried, not bought
The lift came entirely from the Dollar side. Risk appetite flared during the US afternoon on rumors that a US-Iran ceasefire was minutes from being announced, knocking the greenback off its highs and letting the Euro claw back the ground it had lost earlier in the day. Then the story unravelled. Talks are still grinding on, Iran is still angling to levy tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic and still refuses to put nuclear material on the table, and the US has called both of those red lines. The ceasefire markets briefly toasted never materialized, which means the Euro's steadiness rests on a Dollar wobble that may not survive the weekend.
A central bank running short on cover
With the activity surveys pointing firmly south, the European Central Bank (ECB) has less and less room to keep projecting calm. Consumer Confidence ticked up marginally, the day's lone bright spot, but it does little to offset a services sector that has now slipped into outright contraction. The longer policymakers talk up resilience while the survey data deteriorates beneath them, the more the gap between the official narrative and the numbers starts to look like wishful thinking.
The calendar grows teeth next week
Friday offers little of substance for the bloc beyond EcoFin and Eurogroup gatherings and remarks from the ECB's chief economist. The heavier slate sits next week: a string of ECB speakers, the ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, and the German and Eurozone confidence surveys on Thursday, all landing alongside the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve (Fed). The PCE release is the one with real teeth for this pair. A new Fed chair also takes office on Friday, adding a layer of Dollar-side uncertainty into the bargain.
The 200-day line is the whole game
The chart frames the standoff neatly. The Euro is sitting right on its 200-day EMA, just above the 1.1600 figure, the line that has roughly defined fair value for the pair all year. Hold it, and the bulls can keep arguing for a grind back toward 1.1650 and the 50-day EMA up near 1.1700. Lose it, and with the activity data offering no help whatsoever, the path opens toward 1.1550 below. The bias is to treat any upside with suspicion while the PMIs read like this. For now, the Euro is a passenger in the Dollar's car, not the one doing the driving.
EUR/USD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1621. The pair holds a mildly bearish intraday bias as it trades just under the daily open at 1.1626, suggesting upside attempts remain capped while the market digests earlier selling pressure. The Stochastic RSI has recovered from oversold territory toward the mid-30s, hinting at some easing of downside momentum but not yet signaling a convincing bullish reversal.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the daily open near 1.1626, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to improve the short-term tone. With no clear nearby support levels from the provided dataset, traders may continue to treat minor dips as vulnerable while the pair remains below the daily open, with momentum gauges only indicating a modest corrective bounce rather than a trend change.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1619, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1683 while clinging just above the 200-day EMA at 1.1618. This configuration suggests rallies are likely to face supply into the 1.1680 area, even as the Stochastic RSI slips deep into oversold territory near 11, hinting that downside momentum may be stretched in the very short term.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day EMA around 1.1683, and sustained trading below this barrier would maintain the downside pressure. On the downside, the 200-day EMA at 1.1618 is the first line of support; a clear daily close under this level would open the door to a further leg lower, while holding above it could encourage a corrective rebound within the broader capped structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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