British Pound holds losses below 1.3450 on disappointing UK Retail Sales data
- GBP/USD softens to around 1.3420 in Friday's early European session.
- UK Retail Sales fell 1.3% MoM in April, softer than expected.
- Trump will host a swearing-in ceremony for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3420 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) following the worse-than-expected UK economic data. Traders will keep an eye on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report, which will be released later on Friday.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed that UK Retail Sales fell 1.3% month-over-month (MoM) in April, compared to a revised 0.6% in March. This figure came in softer than the market expectations of a 0.6% decline.
Additionally, the core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, dropped by 0.4% MoM in April, versus an increase of 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%) and the estimated -0.3% figure. On an annual basis, Retail Sales in the UK arrived at 0% in April, versus a rise of 1.4% prior (revised from 1.7%) and 1.3% expectations.
The Cable edges slightly lower in an immediate reaction to the softer UK inflation report. This report, combined with an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0%, prompted traders to scale back expectations for future Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes by December.
On the USD’s front, US President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked choice to lead the Fed, during a ceremony on Friday, per Reuters. The new Fed Chair will succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expired Friday but who continues to serve on a pro-tempore basis until Warsh officially takes over.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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