Euro rises as US-Iran deal hopes sink USD, Oil
- Trump’s Iran post fuels optimism over Hormuz reopening terms.
- Oil slides toward $87, dragging the Greenback lower.
- Fed officials warn war-driven inflation could tighten policy.
The EUR/USD edges up by 0.12% as the Greenback drops amid hostilities in the Middle East, while a US-Iran deal is pending approval by the White House and senior Iranian officials. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1664.
EUR/USD gains as Hormuz reopening hopes pressure Dollar and crude
Sentiment remains positive amid a post in social media by US President Donald Trump, who said that Iran must agree that it will never have a nuclear weapon or bomb, adding that the Strait of Hormuz must be open immediately and that water mines would be terminated by Iran. Regarding the enriched uranium, “it will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED.”
In the headline, Oil prices tumbled by 1.50% with WTI extending its losses towards $87.20, while the Greenback is down 0.17% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, sits at 98.81, a tailwind for the shared currency.
The US economic schedule featured the Chicago PMI, which expanded by 62.7, exceeding estimates of 49.7 according to Reuters.
Aside from data releases, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman commented that the disinflation process has stalled, and that she would consider a shift in the policy outlook if war-driven inflation broadens.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said inflationary pressures are weighing on the economy, making it tough for firms to plan for the future. Earlier, Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid said the US central bank needs to weigh how to tighten monetary policy, warning against treating the Oil shock as transitory.
Across the pond, German inflation eased in May from 2.9% to 2.7% YoY. Core figures steadied, up from 2.3% in April to 2.5% YoY.
Next week, the US and Eurozone economic schedules will feature Flash PMIs across Europe, while in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to deteriorate modestly in the May reading.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1679. The pair holds a constructive near‑term bias as it trades above the cluster of simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200) grouped around 1.1666 and remains supported by the rising trend line break area near 1.1582. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.5 is close to neutral but tilts slightly to the upside, suggesting modest bullish momentum while price consolidates above its underlying trend support.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the descending trend line break level around 1.1809, where prior rallies have struggled. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the latest close region around 1.1679, followed by the simple moving average cluster near 1.1666, with the former trend line break at 1.1582 providing a deeper cushion ahead of the more distant structural floor near 1.1245.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.32% | -0.15% | 0.24% | -0.19% | -0.43% | -1.86% | -0.36% | |
| EUR | 0.32% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.14% | -0.15% | -1.56% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | -0.20% | 0.15% | -0.07% | -0.35% | -1.75% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.60% | -0.15% | -0.45% | -0.71% | -2.12% | -0.62% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.14% | 0.07% | 0.45% | -0.27% | -1.69% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.43% | 0.15% | 0.35% | 0.71% | 0.27% | -1.40% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 1.86% | 1.56% | 1.75% | 2.12% | 1.69% | 1.40% | 1.56% | |
| CHF | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.21% | 0.62% | 0.14% | -0.09% | -1.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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