Ripple Price Forecast: XRP recovery outlook deteriorates despite bullish sentiment surging

• XRP whipsaws around $1.37 after failing to breach the $1.40 supply, weighed down by fading investor appetite.
• XRP derivatives market exhibits steady weakness, with futures Open Interest narrowing to $2.45 billion.
• XRP records its second-highest bullish sentiment on social media in over two years despite weak technicals.

Ripple (XRP) is under pressure, trading around $1.37 at the time of writing on Thursday as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tone. The central bank met expectations, leaving interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range on Wednesday amid the uncertainty around the United States (US)-Iran peace talks.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Committee will continue to assess the impact of the high energy prices and tariff shocks on inflation before considering easing its current restrictive policy.

XRP retail demand fades amid mild ETF inflows

Retail investor participation in XRP appears to be waning, as indicated by a decline in perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) to $2.45 billion on Thursday from $2.52 billion the previous day.

While CoinGlass data shows that the OI has steadied above $2.00 billion, it pales in comparison to the $10.94 billion record high in July. Low retail interest suggests that investors lack conviction in XRP’s ability to sustain an uptrend.

Meanwhile, XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) extended inflows for the second day, drawing $3.59 million on Wednesday, a mild increase from $2.20 million on Tuesday. Cumulative inflows now stand at $1.30 billion, with net assets under management averaging $1.04 billion.

Santiment data released on Thursday shows that traders are excited about XRP on social media, driving bullish sentiment to the second-highest level in over two years. The positive sentiment follows XRP’s integration into the Rakuten ecosystem, which bridges Japan’s extensive loyalty-point economy with crypto payments.

Users of the Rakuten Wallet can now directly convert their accumulated loyalty points into XRP, increasing the token’s adoption and utility. It is worth noting that while the wallet has recently added support for other coins, including Stellar (XLM), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Shiba Inu (SHIB), XRP stands out for its full-fledged integration with direct payments within the Rakuten platform.

“ As far as price goes, these events don’t often instantly lead to major price outbreaks. It is usually after the initial wave of euphoria, after FOMO calms down, that the impact of this kind of news sees the bullish outcome,” Santiment researchers explained.

Technical outlook: XRP declines as bears tighten grip

XRP trades at $1.37, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.41, $1.52 and $1.76, respectively. The downward resistance trendline sits well above the spot and reinforces the broader topside supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 45 on the daily chart. A slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggests downside momentum remains but is not yet oversold.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA around $1.41, where any rebound is likely to be capped. A break above this level would open the way toward the prior trendline region near $1.51 and then the 100-day EMA at $1.52, with the 200-day EMA further up at $1.76 acting as a major medium-term barrier. Support is seen at $1.35, XRP's weekly low. A decisive close below this level could accelerate the sell-off toward $1.30.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)