USD: Soft core CPI eases tariff fears but Fed seen on hold – OCBC
December’s softer-than-expected US core CPI suggests tariff-driven inflation pressures may be fading, but shutdown-related distortions leave markets confident the Fed will hold rates steady in January, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.
USD downside eyed in 1H26 amid political uncertainty
"December’s softer-than-expected US core CPI suggests tariff pass-through may have peaked. Yet, data distortions from the government shutdown mean markets still expect the Fed to keep rates steady at its January meeting."
"Inflation remains secondary to labour data for policy decisions. We anticipate modest USD weakness in 1H26, driven by dovish risk from Fed leadership changes and heightened scrutiny over Fed independence—especially with oral arguments in the Lisa Cook case on 21 January, ahead of the FOMC meeting on 27-28 January."
"However, cyclical strength in US data continues to argue for USD upside. A USD rebound could come sooner than expected if US growth accelerates ahead of mid-term elections."
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
Mitrade makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on such information.
Recommended Articles
