Ripple Price Forecast: XRP clings to support as retail and institutional interest cools
- XRP extends its decline from the weekly high of $1.61 by over 9%, testing support at $1.45.
- XRP derivatives face capital exit as futures Open Interest narrows to $2.67 billion on Thursday.
- The technical outlook has deteriorated, pressured by persistent negative market sentiment and a reduction in ETF-related interest.
Ripple (XRP) is edging lower for the third consecutive day, trading around $1.46 at the time of writing on Thursday. A more than 9% decline from weekly highs of $1.61 reinforces the deteriorating market sentiment after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday, suggesting that there are no foreseeable interest rate cuts unless there is a clear downtrend in inflation.
XRP under pressure as retail and institutional demand fades
The XRP derivatives market is once again facing a slump in retail interest, as futures Open Interest (OI), which reflects the notional value of outstanding futures contracts, shrinks to $2.67 billion on Thursday from $2.79 billion the previous day.
Looking back, the increase in OI from $2.11 billion, the lowest level in March, to a weekly high of $2.87 billion on Tuesday coincided with XRP rising to $1.61, underscoring the importance of retail demand. Therefore, monitoring OI patterns could help traders gauge interest in XRP and plan accordingly.
Institutional-related interest remains shaky, as reflected by muted activity in XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Wednesday. SoSoValue data shows that US-listed ETFs recorded zero flows, leaving cumulative inflows at $1.21 billion and total assets under management at $1.02 billion.
So far this week, outflows total $1.34 million through Wednesday, undermining institutional interest in XRP digital investment products.
Technical outlook: XRP risks a deeper pullback as technicals falter
XRP is trading around $1.46 amid a neutral-to-bearish outlook as the price extends its decline from the weekly high of $1.61. The remittance token sits below a sequence of falling moving averages, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $1.51, the 100-day EMA around $1.69, and the 200-day EMA close to $1.94, which confirms a broader downtrend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above its signal line on the daily chart, though recent contraction in the histogram bars shows fading upside momentum after the XRP spike to $1.61. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 is moving toward neutral territory, aligning with the ongoing correction.
XRP remains capped well below the long-standing descending resistance trend line, which continues to frame the broader structure as corrective rather than bullish.
On the downside, initial support lies around $1.45. A break below this level would expose deeper support toward $1.40, where the recent low aligns with the broader consolidation floor. Looking up, immediate resistance is seen at $1.50, followed by $1.61, the latest swing peak that halted the prior advance.
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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