USD/THB: Energy shock pressures Baht – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim highlight that USD/THB climbed to 32.65 as Thailand’s trade balance stayed in deficit and global energy prices rose. The Thai Baht (THB) has underperformed regional peers, falling 3.5% versus the Dollar year-to-date versus a 1.3% average drop for Asian currencies ex-Japan. Softer exports and higher Oil prices are weighing on the currency outlook.

Baht underperforms regional peers

"USD-THB rose 0.3% to 32.65 yesterday. The pair has been steadily rising since the beginning of March as global energy prices surge and gold prices soften. Year-to-date, THB fell 3.5% vs the USD compared to the average for Asian currencies ex-Japan of -1.3%."

"February exports softened more than expected by 9.9% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 17.0%) vs 24.4% in January, the weakest growth in three months. Looking ahead, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) see two-sided risks to export growth."

"Imports jumped 31.8% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 25.0%) vs 29.4% in January, the strongest growth since December 2021. This was driven by a recovery in business sentiment following the stabilization of the political climate in late 2025. Capital good imports jumped 49.3% vs 29.5% in January, while intermediate goods surged 53.3% vs 20.3% previously, the strongest growth since August 2021. The trade balance remained in an unexpected deficit by around -USD2.8bn (Bloomberg consensus: +USD1.0bn) vs -USD3.3bn in January."

"TPSO said that the "export outlook depends on the war's impact and whether the US importers accelerate imports before a 10% global tariff expires in July. We have to see which one will have more profound effect". The Ministry of Commerce forecast 2026 exports to be within a wide range of -3.1% to 1.1%, with a review set for April."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)