When are the UK Retail Sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?
UK Retail Sales Overview
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish the monthly Retail Sales figures later this Friday, at 07:00 GMT. The report is expected to show that sales at the retail level declined sharply by 0.8% in February, compared to the 1.8% rise recorded in the previous month.
On an annualized basis, Retail Sales are forecasted to have increased by 2.1% during the reported month, down from 4.5% in January. Meanwhile, core Retail Sales – excluding fuel – are expected to come in at -0.8% MoM.
How could the UK Retail Sales affect GBP/USD?
Ahead of the key consumer spending data, the GBP/USD pair gains some positive traction and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick. Surprisingly positive data would reinforce the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish outlook and provide an additional boost to the British Pound (GBP).
Conversely, a disappointing report could weigh on GBP. Adding to this, rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) should act as a tailwind for the USD and contribute to capping the GBP/USD pair.
That said, the immediate market reaction to a meaningful divergence from the anticipated Retail Sales figures is more likely to be limited as the market focus remains glued to developments surrounding ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Mar 27, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -0.8%
Previous: 1.8%
Source: Office for National Statistics
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