Gold slumps below $4,750 as Middle East tensions and robust US Retail Sales weigh
- Gold price tumbles to near $4,720 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Ongoing conflict in the Middle East exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal.
- US Retail Sales rose 1.7% in March, hotter than expected.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to around $4,720 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal falls as renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption stokes inflation concerns.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump will extend the ceasefire with Iran until talks between the two countries have progressed. Trump’s announcement struck a markedly different tone from earlier in the day when he said, “I expect to be bombing” if Iran didn’t meet his conditions, adding the military was “raring to go.”
Rising energy costs are stoking inflation fears, raising the bar for cutting rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
However, hotter-than-expected US Retail Sales data could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose 1.7% MoM in March, compared to the 0.7% increase (revised from 0.6%) seen in February. This figure came in above the market consensus of 1.4%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales climbed 4.0% in March, matching February's print.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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