US Dollar Index steadies near 98.50 as US-Iran ceasefire extends
- US Dollar Index remains flat as President Trump extends the Iran ceasefire.
- US blockade on Iranian vessels persists after the second round of US-Iran peace talks collapsed.
- US Retail Sales rose 1.7% MoM in March, accelerating from February’s 0.7% increase.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering modest gains in the previous day and trading around 98.40 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
The Greenback maintains its position after Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump will extend the ceasefire with Iran until negotiations between the two sides make progress. Trump’s statement marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the day, when he said, “I expect to be bombing” if Iran failed to meet his demands, adding the military was “raring to go.”
However, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace talks prevails. The US blockade on Iranian vessels remains in place as plans for a second round of US-Iran peace talks collapsed. Reports indicated that Vice President JD Vance canceled a planned visit to Islamabad for negotiations after Tehran informed Washington via Pakistan that it would not attend the meeting. Iran's military warned of a powerful attack on predetermined targets in view of repeated threats by US President Donald Trump.
The US Dollar also gained support following stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data released on Tuesday. The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales increased 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) in March, compared to the 0.7% rise (revised from 0.6%) recorded in February. The figure exceeded market expectations of 1.4%. On a YoY basis, Retail Sales rose 4.0% in March, matching February’s reading.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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