United States: Productivity-driven growth outlook – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas argues that United States growth outperformance is being driven by strong productivity gains rather than immediate benefits from Artificial Intelligence. The bank notes that hourly labour productivity has accelerated sharply compared with the pre-Covid period and expects this strength to persist into 2026 and 2027. US institutions see AI as a moderate but supportive factor for long-term GDP growth.

Productivity surge underpins US expansion

"Since 2022, US growth has proved resilient in the face of a succession of shocks, including inflation, monetary tightening and tariffs."

"According to our forecasts, this strength is set to continue in 2026 and 2027 (see EcoPerspectives United States: Growth and Full Employment tested by Uncertainty), with strong productivity gains being the key driver."

"Following a temporary surge linked to the pandemic crisis (which is depicted as a “bump” on the chart before correction), hourly labour productivity growth reached an annual average of +2.4% between 2023 and 2025, compared with +1.3% between 2014 and 2019."

"In the medium term, however, AI is expected to support the upward trend."

"Expectations of future productivity gains driven by AI underpin the current investment cycle."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)