Novo Nordisk 2026: Will the Ozempic Makers Benefit From the Strong Demand for Oral Wegovy?

TradingKey - Who owns Ozempic? Novo Nordisk (NVO) does, and that simple fact places the firm at the heart of the global discussion around GLP-1 drugs. But the story today for the market is another one. On February 3, 2026, the Novo stock price fell to $50.3, declining 14.64% on unusually high volume after management forecasted a slower growth rate in 2026, citing price pressure in the US market, increased competition in obesity treatment, and also some patent and product mix headwinds. The retrenchment occurred against a backdrop of a retreating large-cap pharma sector amid a positive broad market, but demonstrates the extreme sensitivity of investors to the longevity of Novo Nordisk's obesity dominance and pricing power.

What Would Inspire Novo’s Stock Price in 2026

Some factors will probably determine the mood. The first will be the path for oral Wegovy—continued daily prescription growth and adherence, as well as any signs of discontinuation rates or side-effect management. The second is the timing of the regulatory route and launch of CagriSema, and more clinical news concerning amycretin. A third uncertainty is how prices and coverage in the US evolve, and whether greater employer and payer adoption offsets list-price reductions, and whether compounded medicines face greater enforcement. And execution on supply continuity for both oral and injectable GLP-1s will matter for market share and sentiment.

Despite what could be considered a reset in expectations, there are still some positive things that could happen this year.

Of particular note is the January 2026 US launch of oral Wegovy, the first approved oral GLP-1 for weight management. Early prescribing data have been positive, as initial uptake of injectable Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Zepbound both outpaced their respective launch windows. An oral product allows Novo Nordisk to tap patients who have a preference for pills rather than injections or who face storage and handling issues; and for some patients who pay out of pocket for the medicine, lower out-of-pocket costs might drive adoption. Novo Nordisk has emphasized the availability of the tablet to prevent the types of supply shortages that had affected earlier GLP-1 launches.

Wegovy is a continued success story with the addition of important label expansions, especially with use in patients with Metabolic Dysfunction–Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH). If Novo Nordisk uses its scale and field force, this additional indication should provide meaningful contributions in 2026 and beyond. The pipeline provides possible near-term catalysts: CagriSema, a next-gen anti-obesity therapy that in late-stage studies outperformed semaglutide, is awaiting regulatory actions; amycretin, which addresses the GLP-1 and amylin pathways, is in Phase 3 of both oral and injectable formulations with mid-stage positive data in obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Novo Nordisk had to internally adjust some of its US leadership and commercial structure in order to defend share and pricing where it can.

How NVO Stock Performed Before 2026

Novo Nordisk shareholders have witnessed immense turbulence for the last 18 months. While Zepbound and Mounjaro gained traction and telehealth channels promoted compounded alternatives to Ozempic, the stock fell from a high multiyear run to a low—approximately 40% at a timeframe within 2025. Volatility in investor expectations in 2026 was exacerbated by the fall from grace of the February 3, 2026, incident leading to volume traded at a rate which exceeded the previous average trade volume by more than three times. Over the very long term, Novo Nordisk has created considerable wealth for investors since its very first listing on the stock exchange in 1981, having gained over 31,000% from the IPO to date. The shares, however, have tracked over shorter time frames the shifts in competitive and policy signals narratives, particularly in the US.

Novo's Growth, Cash Flow, and Dividend Capacity

It is important to analyze Novo Nordisk's business growth notwithstanding growing pressures all around the company. During the last quarter, Novo Nordisk's revenue increased by an estimated 10% and its net profit per share has more than doubled since Q1 2023; therefore, it will be able to maintain this as its ongoing, repeatable source of revenue—largely because of its diversified diabetes product line being the primary source of ongoing cash flow used for R&D as well as its position as a leader in GLP-1s. The company’s management keeps the dividend payout ratio conservative at about 40%. Novo Nordisk’s dividend yield recently settled around the 3% mark, which is quite attractive for a company of its size. The company’s business growth, complemented with the discipline in cash flow, reinvestments, and dividends, will allow it to take the necessary pricing actions and support new initiatives.

Is NVO Expensive or Cheap Now?

Where the opinions diverge is how the valuation works, in part because different snapshots are telling different stories. Novo Nordisk has traded in the vicinity of 18 times earnings at several points this year versus a five-year average around 30 times.

As 2026 approaches, compression appears to be accelerating, with the stock changing hands at what some estimates suggest is a low-teens multiple of next year’s earnings. In contrast, Eli Lilly has typically commanded a multiple of around 50x, due to its momentum in GLP-1 injectables and overall pipeline excitement (with a much lower dividend yield). Novo Nordisk is cheaper than the company’s own recent history and its closest competitor on both a relative and absolute basis.

The discount is not without cost: it reflects very real threats of US price pressure, potential mix shifts to lower-priced oral options, and relentless competition. If revenue growth normalizes in the low-teen range and margin headwinds are mild, it looks like today’s multiple is not too steep; if pricing declines more rapidly than volumes grow, then the lower multiple may be warranted.

What’s Novo's Strengths and Risks Versus Rivals in 2026?

Novo Nordisk's current status is carefully balanced. Compared to Eli Lilly, with its early GLP-1 injectable products, Novo Nordisk has taken a leadership position in weight management through being the first company to introduce an oral GLP-1 agent. Through this, it will be able not only to alter patient preference, but also help to define patient access based on how they obtain their oral GLP-1 from Novo Nordisk. Its ability to manufacture tablets, along with an extensive global diabetes business, and being a significant player in the insulin market, gives it more width in terms of business than its competitors.

Novo Nordisk's late-stage pipeline is also potentially at an asset level, and has incremental enhancements for existing therapies and new mechanisms (e.g., amycretin). Meanwhile, Eli Lilly continues to advance its own oral GLP-1, possibly as soon as late 2026, while several other large pharma companies (e.g., Pfizer) are also pursuing metabolic therapeutic programs via internal efforts and partnerships.

There are still many healthcare policy and payer issues/trends that need to be carefully monitored in order to help companies understand whether or not they can afford to build their GLP-1 business in the United States. This includes updating the Medicare/Medicaid rules, understanding how payer list-to-net price differentials can affect access to GLP-1s in general and by individual payer types, as well as the effect of self-pay discounting strategies on net price. All of these issues represent potential barriers to the growth of oral/injectable GLP-1 drug sales regardless of the overall size of the GLP-1 market.

Should You Invest in Novo Nordisk in 2026?

Novo Nordisk has a potential trade-off for investors. While Novo Nordisk continues to grow at a healthy pace, generate significant cash flow, and has a pipeline with multiple shots on goal, the Novo share price now contains a lot more risk after its guidance for below-consensus revenues in 2026 and as concerns about US pricing and the competitive landscape keep mounting.

Therefore, for those investors that can tolerate volatility and are willing to take execution risk to support the initial stages of the oral launch and future obesity candidate launches, Novo Nordisk's discounted valuation and 3% dividend yield could present an attractive opportunity for risk or reward.

Alternatively, cautious investors may be better served to wait until there is more evidence that revenue growth has returned to stable levels and net pricing is declining before making an investment in Novo Nordisk. Regardless, we will know over the next couple quarters—primarily driven by the adoption of oral Wegovy and pipeline milestones—if Novo Nordisk is able to translate its scientific leadership into a sustainable advantage commercially in 2026.