OpenAI Files Today, Is It Really Ready to Go Public? Facing Off Against SpaceX, Who Is the King of 2026 IPOs?

TradingKey - 2026 is destined to be a banner year for IPOs in global tech history, and the sequential listings of OpenAI and SpaceX will undoubtedly be the central focus of this capital feast.

Reports indicate that AI leader OpenAI is accelerating its IPO process and could confidentially file a draft registration statement for its initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as early as today. If the review process goes smoothly, the company is expected to complete its listing by September this year, a timeline significantly ahead of the market's previous expectations of the fourth quarter or even later.

The IPO target valuation exceeds $1 trillion, potentially making it the largest public offering in the AI industry to date. OpenAI has partnered with Goldman Sachs ( GS ), Morgan Stanley ( MS) and law firm Cooley to fully advance its listing preparations.

Even more compelling for the market is that OpenAI's listing process subtly mirrors that of another star company, SpaceX. Both share a deep history with Elon Musk—OpenAI was co-founded by Musk before his departure, while SpaceX remains his flagship enterprise—and both are regarded as disruptive forces in their respective sectors.

Should both companies go public around 2026, who will truly claim the title of "IPO King of the Year"? This suspense has already sparked widespread interest across global capital markets.

Why is OpenAI accelerating its IPO?

Behind OpenAI’s accelerated push for an IPO is a battle for the timing window against rival Anthropic, along with a capital game in the public market with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

According to market sources, Anthropic is also preparing to list on the public market as early as October this year. Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has explicitly stated internally his desire for the company to list first, seizing the first-mover advantage for capitalization in the artificial intelligence sector.

Altman’s anxiety is not unfounded. Over the past 15 months, Anthropic’s annualized revenue has surged from $1 billion to $30 billion, representing a staggering 30-fold growth. In contrast, OpenAI’s revenue grew from approximately $20 billion to $25 billion during the same period, an increase of only about 25%.

In April this year, Anthropic’s annualized revenue officially surpassed that of OpenAI. Furthermore, in private markets, Anthropic’s implied valuation has reached $1.2 trillion, exceeding the $1 trillion IPO target set by OpenAI. Adding to the pressure on OpenAI, Anthropic expects revenue of approximately $10.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026, alongside an operating profit of about $600 million, potentially reaching profitability ahead of OpenAI.

In addition to direct competition with Anthropic, OpenAI also faces capital diversion pressure from SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans to go public next month, aiming for a valuation of $1.75 trillion to raise approximately $750 billion, which could become the largest IPO in history.

For institutional investors drawing from the same capital pool, how to allocate positions between OpenAI and SpaceX has become a pressing dilemma. Altman also admitted during an all-hands meeting that SpaceX’s listing pace and global macroeconomic trends will be key external variables affecting the IPO timing for both OpenAI and Anthropic.

The deeper drama is that the capital struggle between the two companies is intertwined with historical grievances between Musk and OpenAI. Musk, a co-founder of OpenAI, later left to found the rival xAI, and the two companies remain locked in ongoing litigation.

Is OpenAI truly ready to go public?

In 2022, with the emergence of its phenomenal product ChatGPT, OpenAI rapidly ignited a global artificial intelligence wave, growing into one of the world's most valuable private tech companies within just a few years.

In March of this year, the company successfully raised $122 billion in a funding round, with its valuation jumping to $852 billion, laying a critical foundation for its subsequent capitalization process. Weekly active users for the programming agent Codex have surpassed 4 million, while its latest model, GPT-5.5, has received positive market feedback; ChatGPT remains synonymous with AI, maintaining strong brand recognition.

However, behind the glamour, hidden concerns are equally clear.

OpenAI's cumulative financing has exceeded $180 billion, but its cash burn rate has also set industry records. As CEO Sam Altman accelerates the initial public offering process, the company faces a critical test in proving the sustainability of its business model to public market investors. This will be the first time OpenAI must lay its financial books completely bare for public scrutiny.

Previously, the $852 billion private valuation was built on a shared narrative and trust among a few institutional investors, with no requirement for public financial disclosure and a lack of standardized valuation methodologies.

But once an S-1 registration statement is filed, the scale of losses, cost structure, terms of dependence on Microsoft, and specific assumptions behind its $280 billion revenue forecast will all be placed under the public market's magnifying glass. Investors will directly ask three core questions: Can OpenAI win the competition? When will it achieve profitability? And what exactly supports its current valuation?

This is the deeper meaning behind Altman's comment that "conditions are not yet ripe." He knows better than anyone that the private market buys visions and stories, while the public market trades on figures and certainty. In its current state, OpenAI's financial performance—characterized by a periodic slowdown in revenue growth, eroding market share, and a lack of profitability—is not an ideal time for a debut.

Over three years, OpenAI has shaped itself into the most iconic symbol of this artificial intelligence revolution. Now, this symbol itself has evolved into a form of pressure—the market expects it to live up to a $1 trillion valuation, even if its fundamentals are not yet fully prepared to meet such expectations.

The IPO King of 2026: SpaceX or OpenAI?

In the current landscape, SpaceX holds the upper hand in terms of fundraising scale, valuation levels, and IPO timing.

Based on currently disclosed financial data, SpaceX temporarily holds the advantage in the valuation race. The company's valuation reached $1.25 trillion in a private funding round in February 2026, and the target valuation for this IPO has been further revised upward to approximately $1.75 trillion, with the fundraising scale poised to set a new historical record for all global initial public offerings.

More critically, following its strategic integration with the large model firm xAI, SpaceX is no longer confined to the space launch sector. Instead, it has transformed into one of the few giants dominating both space infrastructure and cutting-edge artificial intelligence, a unique business synergy that provides solid support for its ultra-high valuation.

By contrast, OpenAI's valuation trajectory appears more cautious. After completing a massive $122 billion funding round in March 2026, the company's valuation settled at $852 billion, though its investment banking team is actively pushing to breach the $1 trillion psychological milestone at the time of its listing.

However, which company will ultimately claim the title of "2026 IPO of the Year" depends on whether market sentiment can be sustained and their ability to meet earnings expectations.

A key consideration behind OpenAI's acceleration of its listing process is the concern that growth momentum in the AI industry might experience a periodic slowdown, potentially triggering a valuation correction. If enthusiasm for AI-concept stocks cools before the potential listing date in September, SpaceX—which is set to complete its offering earlier in June—will likely emerge as the winner of this capital race.

Meanwhile, investor focus on AI companies is gradually shifting from revenue growth to profitability prospects. Competitor Anthropic's faster profitability timeline has already placed competitive pressure on OpenAI, whereas SpaceX, bolstered by stable cash flow from its aerospace business, may command a higher valuation premium in public markets. Whoever can sooner prove the sustainability of their business model to investors will hold the initiative in this valuation interplay.

Regardless of the final outcome, this trillion-dollar capital showdown between OpenAI and SpaceX is destined to go down in the history of global capital markets. This is not only a personal rivalry between two tech leaders but also the first public market clash between two future frontiers: the aerospace industry and artificial intelligence. Its conclusion will profoundly influence the restructuring of valuation systems and the allocation of capital flows within the global tech industry over the next decade.