US Pre-Market: US-Iran Deal Hedges Hawkish Fed. Three Major Index Futures Rebound, Intel Rises Over 9%, AI Chip Stocks Rally

TradingKey - On Thursday Eastern Time, futures on the three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively in pre-market trading, with market sentiment recovering significantly from the previous session. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish signal after his first policy meeting, prompting the market to reprice the risk of interest rate hikes this year, the signing of an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran and improved navigation expectations in the Strait of Hormuz continued to push down international oil prices, easing concerns over energy inflation and boosting risk appetite for tech stocks.

As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.27%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.75%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.48%.

U.S. stock index futures performance, Source: Investing

On the commodities front, international oil prices continued to slide, with WTI ( USOIL) crude falling back to around $74.6. The U.S. and Iran released the text of their interim agreement, which includes extending the ceasefire, restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and easing restrictions related to Iranian crude oil, further reducing the market's risk pricing of Middle East supply disruptions. Gold ( XAUUSD) rebounded slightly, peaking at $4,329.9 during the session, but capped by a stronger dollar and the Fed's hawkish stance, leaving limited room for a gold price rally.

On the cryptocurrency front, Bitcoin ( BTC) fluctuated around $64,000. While the U.S.-Iran agreement improved risk appetite, the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate expectations continued to weigh on highly volatile assets, leaving the overall crypto market underperforming the U.S. tech sector.

Unusual Market Movements

Intel ( INTC) rose over 9% in premarket trading. U.S. President Trump stated that Apple ( AAPL) has agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the United States. This news stimulated Intel to lead the premarket rally in chip stocks. The market believes that the further implementation of the Apple-Intel partnership will significantly improve the narrative surrounding Intel's advanced nodes, foundry business, and domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

AI chip stocks collectively strengthened in premarket trading. Nvidia ( NVDA) rose about 1% in premarket trading, Micron Technology ( MU) rose about 4%, Marvell Technology ( MRVL) surged over 6%. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and easing pressure on Treasury yields, capital is flowing back into the AI hardware supply chain. The market continues to trade around the main themes of AI computing power, memory chips, data center expansion, and domestic U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.

Energy stocks were under pressure in premarket trading. As oil prices fell to a three-and-a-half-month low, Exxon Mobil ( XOM ), Chevron ( CVX ), Occidental Petroleum ( OXY) and other upstream oil and gas stocks faced pressure. The U.S.-Iran agreement weakened the risk of crude supply disruptions, and the risk premium on oil prices fell back, putting short-term pressure on energy stocks.

Accenture (ACN) tumbled over 13% in premarket trading. The company lowered its full-year revenue growth guidance after announcing its fiscal third-quarter financial results, cutting its fiscal 2026 revenue growth forecast to 3% to 4% from the previous 3% to 5%. Although the company's adjusted earnings per share were $3.80, beating market expectations, its fiscal third-quarter revenue of $18.7 billion fell short of the market consensus of $18.8 billion, and new bookings of $19.3 billion also came in below market expectations.

Smith & Wesson ( SWBI) surged 16.6% in premarket trading. The company reported sales growth for the fourth quarter, with financial performance beating market expectations, which drove the stock price sharply higher in premarket trading. The market believes that the strong sales data reflects the resilient demand for its core products.

Market Headlines

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but delivered a hawkish signal. At its June meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. After chairing his first policy meeting, Kevin Warsh stated that the Fed needs to continue delivering on its price stability mandate, with the latest projections showing that some officials expect rate hikes could still be possible in 2026. Following the meeting, market bets on a 25-basis-point rate hike in September surged, and short-term Treasury yields briefly climbed to a 16-month high.

The U.S. and Iran released the text of an interim agreement, fueling expectations for a resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement includes extending the ceasefire by 60 days, promoting negotiations for a final peace accord, restoring maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and waiving certain sanctions on Iranian crude oil. The deal pushed oil prices down to a three-and-a-half-month low, serving as a key factor supporting global risk assets in pre-market trading today.

U.S. retail sales for May came in stronger than expected, as economic resilience continued to support the market. According to U.S. Commerce Department data, retail and food services sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, beating market expectations and marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. The robust consumer spending data indicates the U.S. economy remains resilient, but it may also strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain tight policy or even hike rates again later this year.

Key Data/Events Preview

At 8:30 AM ET on June 18, the U.S. releases initial jobless claims.

At 8:30 AM ET on June 18, the U.S. releases the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

At 10:00 AM ET on June 18, the U.S. releases the Leading Indicators for May.

At 1:00 PM ET on June 18, the U.S. releases the results of the 5-year TIPS auction.

At 4:30 PM ET on June 18, the Federal Reserve releases its balance sheet.

On June 19, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for the Juneteenth holiday.