Japanese Yen: High stakes around BoJ and Fed – Societe Generale
Societe Generale highlights USD/JPY trading near 160, with dips bought despite lower Oil and expectations of a 25 bp BoJ hike. They stress that a BoJ move is seen as a foregone conclusion, but focus on what might narrow 2-year UST/JGB spreads and ease intervention pressure, as speculative short Japanese Yen positioning has reached multi-year highs.
Yen under pressure despite BoJ hike
"USD/JPY: 159.74 - 160.28 overnight range."
"Dip bought despite lower oil and prospect of 25bp hike by BoJ tomorrow, hints at positioning for hawkish Fed hold."
"Support 159, resistance 161.20."
"For USD/JPY in particular the stakes are running high."
"The 25bp rate hike by the BoJ should be a foregone conclusion tomorrow but what exactly will cause 2y UST/JGB spreads to narrow and lift pressure to intervene?"
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