SpaceX Stock Forecast: After a 19% IPO Surge, Can SPCX Keep Climbing Before Earnings?

TradingKey - As of June 15, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is trading at $171.91. This comes decisively after the company's June 12 IPO debut, where the stock opened at $150, climbed intraday past 30% to $176.52, and wound up its maiden session at $160.95, which is 19.2% ahead of the $135 IPO offer price. June 15 also marks the official settlement date of the IPO, at which time the underwriters' overallotment option, representing another 83.3 million shares at the IPO price of $135, becomes exercisable for a 30-day period. The overallotment and initial stabilisation of the issue have been handled by Morgan Stanley.

SPCX initially opened on 58 million shares on a broadly supported order book including long-only positions, active trade orders, and retail investor participation to the order of about $15 billion, in Nasdaq President Nelson Griggs's words. The next public earnings report is now confirmed to happen September 2, 2026. The RSI currently sits in the 50 to 60 zone, a neutral-bullish signal that allows for further upside and lacks any evidence of a bearish divergence. The next Fib extension target is at $183.96.

Where $171.91 Sits in the Price Structure and What the Chart Is Telling Investors

The 1H time-frame is putting forth a textbook post-IPO base-and-break pattern. The SPCX stock held the $149.83 point on the 1.0 Fibonacci base, the figure that essentially coincides with the June 12 opening tick at $150. It absorbed the intraday sellers who pushed the spike up to $176.52 all the way back to the $160.95 daily close and, after that, has recovered to $171.91.

In the process, it has cleared the 0.236 Fib at $170.19 on the basis of solid green candles that don't overlap too much with red candlesticks. A bounce from the first day's dip with no visit to the IPO price of $135 is the most constructive post-IPO price action conceivable: this implies that any first-day profit-taking sellers had enough buying interest to fully eat them up, with no need for the company to surrender the entire first-day advance. The next point of reference is the 0 extension at $176.48, a zone of resistance that matches the June 12 intraday high of $176.52. A daily close over the $176.50 area is an invitation to the $183 to $185 Fib targets.

The price action needs to be viewed in the context of an MSCI inclusion that went into play on June 13 (T+1 after the June 12 listing date), resulting in some mechanical index-fund buying of an estimated $15 to $20 trillion in MSCI-tracking AUM against a 4% free float. That buying pressure is price insensitive because the funds simply must buy in order to track the benchmark index.

The combination of that inflow plus the technical base of the SPCX issue over $160 is likely the reason we have seen a bounce to $171.91 in the first place without any substantial retest of the market. The 180-day lockup on stock insider ownership means that the float is likely constrained into 2026 at least.

What Is New Since the IPO — Bitcoin Treasury, Solana Token, and September 2 Earnings

The SPCX thesis is now more complicated with three key developments since the company went public:

1. The SpaceX S-1 indicates it has 18,712 Bitcoin in its corporate treasury worth some $1.2 billion at current prices.
2. In addition to a Nasdaq debut, a tokenized version of SpaceX stock was released by Backpack based on the Solana blockchain. The token allows for onchain trading and the ability to exchange for underlying SPCX stock.
3. September 2nd, 2026 will be the first earnings release. That is 79 days from today. Q2 2026 will mark the first quarter where Starlink subscriber growth and xAI Capex and Starship commercial launch cadence will become reported numbers rather than S-1 projections. For longer-term SPCX traders, the September 2nd date is the first truly fundamental anchor, the event upon which the post-IPO stock price will hold or get compressed.

SPCX Technical Setup — Fib 0.236 Cleared at $170.19, Targets $183.96

This data point wasn’t included or highlighted in the pre-IPO analysis. It is relevant for the long-term thesis because it means SpaceX is now a third (and the latest) major corporate treasury Bitcoin play next to MicroStrategy and Tesla. It will mean SPCX will have some crypto correlated value sensitivity as part of the valuation that wouldn’t normally be associated with a traditional space infrastructure company and will be a second-order price action point of reference not dependent on Starlink subscriber growth or Starship advancement.

Second: Tokenized SPCX Stock Trading on Solana Blockchain

Backpack also issued a tokenized version of the SpaceX stock allowing for decentralized, onchain SPCX trading and redemptions for underlying SpaceX shares. It’s very early stage development and a minor feature but may become a potentially major feature to expand SPCX trading to global retail where Nasdaq doesn’t operate.

Third, More Important: First Earnings on September 2nd, 2026

Q2 2026 will be the first reporting period that Starlink subscriber growth and xAI capex and Starship commercial launch cadence are now revealed in numbers. SPCX Q2 is the first fundamental anchor for longer-term SPCX traders, the binary event by which post-IPO valuation will hold or compress.

SPCX Technicals: Fib 0.236 Cleared at $170.19, Targets at $183.96

On the 1H chart, SPCX sits at $171.91, having cleared the 0.236 Fib at $170.19 off the $149.83 base and confirmed with green candles indicating that the buying has conviction on higher levels above the Fib retracement level. 50 to 60 RSI is neutral-bullish and can keep running before reaching overbought and showing bearish divergence.

Volume has picked up in green legs off the $150 base indicating institutional activity. The 0 Fib extension target is the $176.48 level, which aligns with the June 12 intraday high of $176.52 as a test level. The $176.50 level will be the key break-out level; a decisive move there will open up the extension targets of $183.96 and $185. Stop under the Fib 0.236 level at $170.20, now in place as support.

Trade Entry:

• Long above $176.50, which is the 0 Fib extension and 6/12 Intraday High cleared
• 1st Target: $183.96, which is the 0 Fib Extension
• 2nd Target: $185, which is the Upper extension of channel
• Support: $170.19, which is the Fib 0.236 acting as floor
• Stop Loss: Close under $170.20, which is the Failure of Fib 0.236 support
• Next event: 9/2/26 First Earnings

Bottom Line

SPCX at 15 June is USD 171.91, after breaking through the 0.236 Fibonacci at USD 170.19 following a textbook post-IPO base at the USD 150 opening. The post-IPO trading volume recovery, which saw a 19.2% gain by the end of the first day at USD 160.95, is supported by MSCI inclusion effective 13 June and the lack of available supply from a 4% float. 2 September 2026, the earnings release date, serves as a fundamental benchmark test as to whether or not the post-IPO valuation will sustain at USD 1.85 to USD 2 trillion.

Further updates since the IPO included an 18,712 Bitcoin BTC treasury on the balance sheet and a tokenized SPCX listed on the decentralized network Solana. The bullish view is for a move above USD 176.50 with subsequent targets at USD 183.96 and 185. Stop below USD 170.20. The 180-day lockup expiring December 2026 is the next major supply event to consider following the September earnings date.