Euro gains against US Dollar as Waller tempers Fed rate-hike bets
- EUR/USD attracts buyers as the US Dollar retreats to a one-week low.
- Dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller reduce expectations of a September rate hike.
- The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
EUR/USD attracts buyers on Thursday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY), softer United States labour-market data and a pullback in US Treasury yields weigh on the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1622, up roughly 0.30% on the day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.00, near a one-week low, after reaching 99.86 on Wednesday, its highest level since August 14. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield falls for the second consecutive day to around 4.74%, retreating from 4.81%, its highest level since October 2023.
Dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller prompt traders to scale back bets on a rate hike this month. Waller said he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation in recent data” and that the “rate decision in September hinges on August inflation.” He added that he would support keeping interest rates unchanged if the August data confirm recent progress.
Waller also said the Fed’s mandate is to achieve “price stability and full employment, not financial conditions,” adding that the current interest-rate setting “could get us back to 2% inflation.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting has fallen to around 48% from 63% a day earlier.
Meanwhile, mixed US economic data offers conflicting signals. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 206K in the week ending August 29, slightly above the market forecast of 205K and the previous reading of 204K. However, the ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in July, exceeding expectations of 54.3. The Prices Paid and Employment indices increased to 72.6 and 47.8, respectively. Traders now await Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh clues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to raise interest rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting. The move would mark the second rate hike this year as the central bank seeks to curb inflation, which has been driven largely by elevated Oil prices linked to the war in the Middle East.
A Reuters poll showed that all 65 economists surveyed expect the ECB to raise its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10. Around 91% expect the rate to stay at 2.50% through the end of the year, while 78% see it holding at that level through mid-2027.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.29% | -0.18% | -2.02% | -0.31% | -0.28% | -0.32% | -0.59% | |
| EUR | 0.29% | 0.10% | -1.75% | -0.08% | 0.01% | -0.10% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | -0.10% | -1.85% | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.18% | -0.41% | |
| JPY | 2.02% | 1.75% | 1.85% | 1.72% | 1.78% | 1.67% | 1.45% | |
| CAD | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.16% | -1.72% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.27% | |
| AUD | 0.28% | -0.01% | 0.09% | -1.78% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | 0.32% | 0.10% | 0.18% | -1.67% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.59% | 0.31% | 0.41% | -1.45% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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