Ripple Price Forecast: XRP rises as 200-day EMA support holds
- XRP ticks up, trading above $1.36 on Thursday, in line with the broader cryptocurrency market gains.
- US-listed XRP spot ETFs posted $7 million outflows on Wednesday after 11 consecutive days of inflows.
- XRP retail demand steadies with perpetual futures Open Interest at 2.25 billion XRP.
Ripple (XRP) bulls are attempting a recovery above $1.36 at the time of writing on Thursday, underpinning a strong moving average support cluster. Despite the modest recovery, broader market sentiment remains shaky as investors adopt a cautious stance amid renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.
The two nations re-escalated tensions last weekend, with strikes continuing early this week. Risk aversion is already evident, considering outflows from spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Wednesday.
XRP ETFs turn bearish amid growing investor caution
US-listed XRP spot ETFs saw outflows of $7 million on Wednesday, breaking an extended 11-day bullish streak. Despite the single-day outflow, cumulative inflows hold steady at $1.68 billion, up from $1.51 billion in early August, according to SoSoValue.
Similarly, total assets under management averaged $1.42 billion, up from $1 billion over the same period. If inflows return, they could cushion XRP from broader crypto headwinds, raising the chances of a sustained recovery above $1.40 and $1.50 levels, respectively.
Meanwhile, retail demand remains steady, with perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) at 2.25 billion XRP on Thursday, down only marginally from 2.26 billion XRP the day before. CoinGlass data shows the decline against the backdrop of the OI spiking to 2.78 billion XRP on August 15. Retail interest in XRP is needed to support the short to medium-term recovery outlook.
Technical analysis: XRP shows subtle recovery signs
XRP trades above $1.36 while holding above a rising cluster of Exponential Moving Averages, with the 200-day EMA at $1.35 underpinning the latest breakout and the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $1.22 and $1.22 reinforcing a constructive medium-term structure. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slipped below its signal line and turned negative, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 suggests ongoing bullish bias rather than exhaustion.
Immediate support lies at the 200-day EMA at $1.35, followed by a deeper demand zone around the 50-day EMA at $1.22 and the 100-day EMA at $1.22. With no clear overhead technical levels on the daily chart, price action around $1.36 acts as a near-term pivot. A sustained hold above this area would keep the bullish tone intact, while a daily close back below $1.35 would hint at a broader correction toward the EMA cluster in the low $1.22s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
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