Gold: Safe-haven flows offset weaker India demand – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch note that Gold has stabilized around USD 5,200 per troy ounce, supported by political uncertainty over US tariffs and the US–Iran conflict. ETF inflows underline safe-haven demand, while high prices are curbing physical buying in India.

Tariff risks and geopolitical support

"The price of gold has stabilized in recent days at around USD 5,200 per troy ounce. The previously strong price fluctuations have subsided significantly. The price of gold is being supported by geopolitical crises such as the US-Iran conflict and the war in Ukraine."

"Added to this is new uncertainty about US tariff policy following the ruling by the US Supreme Court a week ago, although the major tariff chaos has so far been avoided. The fact that gold is in demand as a safe haven is reflected in the inflows into gold ETFs, which according to Bloomberg data have totaled 22 tons so far this week."

"After all, it is unclear how the US government will replace reciprocal tariffs in the long term. Some trading partners, such as the EU, are likely to fear that the tariff burden could be higher than previously negotiated."

"This, in turn, could lead to renewed tensions between the economic powers. The threat of escalation in the US-Iran conflict is also likely to continue to support gold."

"The high price level appears to be weighing on physical gold demand in India. Traders there had to offer discounts of up to USD 65 per troy ounce on the official price this week, which was last the case 10 months ago."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)