WTI Oil steadies below $98.00 amid mild hopes of an US-Iran peace deal
- WTI OIL hovers below $98, on track to a 3.8% weekly decline.
- Positive comments about the US-Iran peace negotiations have pushed Cride Oil down from weekly highs.
- Hopes about an upcoming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are limiting declines.
Crude Oil prices are hovering near 10-day lows, with upside attempts limited below the $98.00 line on Friday, on track to a nearly 4% weekly decline. Comments by US officials highlighting some advances in the peace negotiations with Iranian authorities are feeding hopes of a negotiated end to the war and keeping Cude prices under pressure.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio showed hope that Pakistani mediators will advance diplomatic efforts to reach a sustainable peace agreement. The market, however, holds a significant degree of scepticism as positions on key issues such as Iran’s nuclear power and the status of the Strait of Hormuz remain far apart.
The barrel of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), however, trades more than 30% above pre-war levels as the blockage of Hormuz approaches its third month, heightening concerns about a global Oil shortage. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned earlier this week that its oil deficit projection is widening in 2026, with consumption outweighing production by 2.56 million barrels per day, which might rise to 8.43 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported on Friday that Iran and Oman have held negotiations to enforce a permanent toll on transit through the Key Hormuz waterway. Beyond that, the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’s (UAE) state oil firm warned that Oil transit would not return to normal until next year, even if the war ended tomorrow. Against this background, declines in Crude prices are likely to remain limited unless the landscape changes dramatically.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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