Copper: Sluggish supply growth offsets risk aversion – Commerzbank

Commerzbank reports Copper has fallen about 5% from mid‑May highs, mainly on higher risk aversion from rising Oil prices. Yet China’s April Copper output dipped 4.5% month-on-month and mining news from Chile and Indonesia point to weaker supply growth. Cochilco cut Chile’s 2026 production outlook, while Grasberg is not expected to reach full capacity until end‑2027.

Weaker mine output supports prices

"Copper has fallen by about 5% from its mid-May high."

"China’s copper production in April was 4.5% lower than in March and thus only 3% higher than a year earlier."

"News from the mining sector also supported prices: Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, has revised downward its outlook for mine production in the leading supplier country, citing low ore grades and operational difficulties following disappointing first-quarter figures: Production expectations for this year were revised down by 2% to 5.3 million tons."

"For next year, however, Cochilco expects a slight recovery of 4% to 5.5 million tons."

"Mine production in Indonesia is also disappointing, as the resumption of production at the world’s second-largest copper mine, the Grasberg Mine, is proceeding more slowly than hoped, and full capacity is not expected to be reached until the end of 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)