Oil: Prices retreat on Saudi exports and US data – ING

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Brent and WTI have sold off sharply as expectations of higher Saudi crude exports, progress in US-Iran talks and a surprise US inventory build ease Middle East supply concerns. Brent has fallen for six straight sessions, while US natural gas prices rise on lower production and cooler weather forecasts.

Saudi flows and inventories pressure crude

"Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with Brent dropping below $99/bbl and WTI trading near $89/bbl. The sell-off was driven by expectations of rising Saudi crude exports, diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, and a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories, all of which helped ease concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Brent has now declined for six consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak since August 2025, bringing cumulative losses to more than 9.5%."

"Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West pipeline and could soon resume exports from the Yanbu terminal. The route, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, has a capacity of around 7m b/d and is expected to gradually restore lost export flows, potentially increasing global crude supplies in the coming weeks."

"On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump described recent discussions with Iranian officials as "very productive", raising hopes for further diplomatic progress and reducing fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the region. Despite the recent correction, oil prices remain more than 60% higher year-to-date."

"Additional pressure came from the latest API data, which showed US crude inventories rose by 1.7m barrels last week, compared with expectations of a 578k-barrel draw. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks each fell by 2.2m barrels. The market will now look to the EIA inventory report later today for confirmation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)