US Dollar Index declines to near 97.50 ahead of PPI data
- US Dollar Index falls ahead of January PPI for signals on Federal Reserve policy.
- The Greenback weakens amid US policy uncertainty as Donald Trump plans 15% tariffs after a Supreme Court ruling.
- The USD may strengthen on safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is paring its recent gains registered in the previous session and trading around 97.70 during the Asian hours on Friday.
Traders now look to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January release for guidance on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy later in the day. The report is forecast to show wholesale inflation slowing to 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5% in December.
The Greenback struggles amid persistent uncertainty over US trade policy. Trump announced plans to impose a blanket 15% tariff on imports after a Supreme Court ruling struck down his earlier reciprocal tariff regime. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said tariffs could be raised to 15% or higher for several countries in the coming days.
The US Dollar may gain ground due to safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions after Iran said it would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country. A sizeable US military presence in the Middle East has kept markets cautious, with President Donald Trump warning of possible military action if no agreement is reached.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described Thursday’s talks as the most substantive so far, outlining Tehran’s demands for sanctions relief and a framework for lifting restrictions. However, a source familiar with the US position said American officials were dissatisfied. Negotiations will resume after consultations in both capitals, with technical-level meetings scheduled in Vienna next week.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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