United States Dollar Index advances amid prevailing risk aversion, hawkish Fed outlook
- US Dollar Index gains on dampening recent diplomatic optimism amid renewed Middle East military tension.
- US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian attack drones targeting commercial vessels near the critical Strait of Hormuz.
- The 6.5% YoY surge in May's US PPI reinforced the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate stance.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding gains after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.80 during the early European hours on Friday. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June will be eyed later in the North American session.
The Greenback receives support amid renewed risk aversion following fresh military friction in the Middle East, which tempered recent diplomatic optimism. Fox News reported that US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the critical Strait of Hormuz after they attempted to target commercial vessels. Conversely, Iranian state media attributed explosion sounds in Sirik to a confrontation with a vessel breaching the waterway. They claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning to an oil tanker, forcing it to comply with a regional traffic ban.
However, US President Donald Trump signaled that a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran could be finalized as early as this weekend, a significant shift following his recent decision to pause planned military strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. While the official text still requires formal bilateral approval, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency indicated that Tehran is likely to accept the terms. According to President Trump, the landmark deal aims to safely reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and secure binding commitments from Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Additionally, the US Dollar received support after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released hot inflation data on Thursday, which reinforced a "higher for longer" Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate stance.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 6.5% YoY in May, up from 5.7% in April, beating the 6.4% market consensus to register its highest level since November 2022. On a monthly basis, the PPI jumped 1.1% against the market expectation of 0.7%.
John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital, commented on the data, noting that the Fed is clearly missing its inflation target by a lot more than it is missing its employment objective. Ryding added that the scorching PPI report should further embolden those on the FOMC who believe another rate hike might be required later in the year.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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