AUD/USD falls toward 0.7000 after pulling back from three-year highs
- AUD/USD retreated after reaching a three-year high of 0.7094 on Thursday.
- Australia’s PPI rose 3.5% YoY in Q4 2025, unchanged from the pace seen in Q3.
- The US Treasury said China’s large external surpluses reflect a substantially undervalued exchange rate.
AUD/USD loses ground after three days of gains, trading around 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains subdued following the release of Australia’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which climbed 3.5% year-over-year (YoY) in the fourth quarter of 2025, the same pace as in Q3.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) may regain its ground as hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data, released earlier this week, boosted the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike as early as next week.
Markets now price in over a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) hike by the RBA from the 3.6% cash rate, up from 60% before the release, with rates fully priced at 3.85% by May and around 4.10% by September.
US Treasury noted in a semi-annual foreign-exchange report released on Thursday, “Given China’s extremely large and growing external surpluses and now substantially undervalued exchange rate, it is important that the Chinese authorities allow the RMB exchange rate to strengthen in a timely and orderly manner in line with macroeconomic fundamentals,” reported by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg also reported late Thursday that US President Donald Trump said that he will announce his choice to replace Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Friday morning. Trump said that his pick will do a "good job" and that he wants the US central bank to cut rates when there are signs of economic growth.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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