Musk’s Latest Prediction: AI Could Boost Global Economy by $30 Trillion, Humanoid Robots to Reach 1 Billion Within 10 Years

TradingKey - Elon Musk has once again made extremely aggressive predictions about AI and robotics.

Speaking via video link at a G20-related meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, Musk stated that artificial intelligence has already begun delivering noticeable productivity gains, and as humanoid robots enter large-scale deployment, global productivity could see an even greater leap.

He estimates that AI could expand the size of the global economy by 20% to 30%, translating to an additional $20 trillion to $30 trillion in annual economic output. Musk also believes that the global population of humanoid robots could reach 1 billion over the next decade, while a single robot's output capacity could reach 5 times that of a human.

If this prediction ultimately materializes, the productive capacity brought by robots could even exceed the total of the global human workforce.

AI May Cover Most Digital Jobs Within 18 Months

Musk expects that over the next 12 to 18 months, AI capabilities in software programming and other digital tasks will see a significant leap. By the end of 2027, theoretically, any job that does not require direct interaction with the physical world could be accomplished by or deeply involve AI.

He drew an analogy to the chess engine Stockfish, noting that once AI programming capabilities reach a similar level, it may be difficult for human developers to compete directly in speed and accuracy.

The key point here is not that AI will completely replace all programmers, but that the software development paradigm may undergo a fundamental shift. In the future, humans will primarily be responsible for defining goals, reviewing results, and making complex decisions, while specific coding, testing, and optimization tasks are gradually handed over to AI agents.

1 Billion Humanoid Robots Could Reshape Global Productivity

Compared with the pure software sector, Musk is even more optimistic about the long-term impact of humanoid robots. He expects that over the next decade, the global number of humanoid robots could reach at least 1 billion, while the average output capacity of a single robot is expected to reach five times that of an ordinary person.

Musk believes the commercial value of robots depends on three factors: the intelligence level of AI software, the computing power of chips, and the flexibility of mechanical systems. As these three technologies improve in tandem, humanoid robots are expected to move out of the laboratory and into scenarios such as manufacturing, logistics, retail, healthcare, and home services.

More importantly, robots in the future will not only be able to work, but may also participate in the manufacturing of robots themselves, thereby forming a growth process similar to "recursive expansion." Musk therefore believes that once robots enter the mass production phase, the growth speed of their numbers may accelerate significantly.

In his forecast, 1 billion humanoid robots over the next decade is not the endpoint, but the starting point for the global economy entering a new production paradigm. With AI handling decision-making and control, and robots handling execution, the combination of the two could push productivity to previously unimaginable levels.

SpaceX Is Incorporating AI and Computing Power Into Its Business Footprint

Musk's comments come as his companies have already begun investing heavily in AI.

SpaceX (SPCX) is currently expanding its AI infrastructure business. The company previously disclosed that its second-quarter AI-related revenue reached approximately $2.6 billion, up 247% year-over-year, while investing about $15.8 billion to build AI infrastructure, with most of the funds used to expand the Colossus II data center.

This means SpaceX's AI layout is no longer limited to models or software, but is gradually extending to underlying infrastructure such as computing power, electricity, and data centers.

Meanwhile, SpaceX continues to expand its AI footprint, including advancing AI models and computing services, while addressing computing demands through data center construction. Musk previously emphasized that a core constraint for future AI development is not the chips themselves, but the power required to run them.