Nvidia Earnings Eve: Options Market Long-Short Battle Heats Up. How Big Is the Earnings Risk? Will Nvidia Fall After Earnings?

TradingKey - NVIDIA (NVDA) will report its financial results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, May 20. This report will serve as the most critical stress test for the AI trade.

However, the market is not betting entirely on the stock heading higher. Recent signals from the options market show that while investors are wagering on an upside, they are also buying protective positions in bulk, which could mean the market is preparing for expanded volatility. Options analysis firm SpotGamma noted in a recent report that the implied move for NVIDIA's earnings has reached 6%.

The firm's data shows that current U.S. stocks, from broad indices to individual names, are exhibiting a trend where underlying prices and volatility rise in tandem. Multiple semiconductor stocks and tech ETFs have implied volatility and IV Ranks at historical highs, such as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) with an at-the-money implied volatility of 46.97 and an IV Rank as high as 92.59. Marvell (MRVL) with an implied volatility of 96.45, while memory chip stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and Western Digital (WDC) all have IV Ranks exceeding 80, with these stocks recently hitting new highs.

Although the IV Ranks for the S&P 500 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF are lower, they are rising in tandem with the VIX, indicating that the battle between bulls and bears remains intense.

SpotGamma pointed out that put buying for these assets has increased, concentrated in deep out-of-the-money strike prices, meaning investors are seeking tail-risk hedging rather than pure directional bets. However, overall positioning remains extremely skewed toward the bullish side, indicating very limited demand for downside protection. This suggests that if earnings disappoint or trigger mass profit-taking, it could spark a significant directional reversal and a stampede-like sell-off.

Nvidia’s Earnings Outlook is Precarious: How Big a Beat Does the Market Require to Applaud?

The options market currently exhibits a fragile and crowded long structure, which implies that the market is placing an almost 100% bet on perfection for Nvidia. If the company misses expectations, it could trigger a decline as "good news is fully priced in." Analysts point out that Nvidia's biggest challenge is exactly how much of a beat is required to satisfy the market.

For this earnings report, the market will focus on its core Data Center business, the Blackwell chip demand ramp, whether the Rubin platform can support the next phase of growth, and whether margins can exceed the 75% expectation.

Additionally, the market is watching guidance. Bloomberg data shows that the market currently expects Nvidia's fiscal 2027 revenue to reach approximately $370 billion, up about 71% from the previous year; adjusted earnings per share are projected to rise from $4.77 to $8.43, an increase of roughly 77%. If the company provides conservative guidance, it could trigger a pullback in recent gains.